Showing posts with label Gallup polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallup polls. Show all posts

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Are voters really that dumb, or is it spin?

Unbelievable:

Lawmakers snipe, Wall St. frets as deadline nears
[...] Despite McConnell's assertions that the debt problem belongs to Obama, fresh polling from Quinnipiac University suggested voters would be more apt to hold Republicans responsible than Obama, by 48 percent to 34 percent, if the debt limit is not raised. The same survey showed voters were about evenly split on whether they're more concerned about raising the limit and increasing government debt, or seeing the government go into default and damaging the economy.

"The American people aren't very happy about their leaders, but President Barack Obama is viewed as the best of the worst, especially when it comes to the economy," said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute.

That helps explain why McConnell put forward a plan that would give Obama new powers to overcome Republican opposition to raising the debt ceiling.

The proposal would place the burden on Obama to win debt ceiling increases up to three times, provided he was able to override congressional vetoes — a threshold Obama could manage to overcome even without a single Republican vote and without massive spending cuts. Conservatives promptly criticized the plan for giving up the leverage to reduce deficits. But the plan raised the prospect of combining it with some of the spending cuts already identified by the White House in order to win support from conservatives in the House.

In an interview with radio talk-show host Laura Ingraham, McConnell described his plan in stark political terms, warning fellow conservatives that failure to raise the debt limit would probably ensure Obama's re-election in 2012. He predicted that a default would allow Obama to argue that Republicans were making the economy worse.

"You know, it's an argument he has a good chance of winning, and all of a sudden we (Republicans) have co-ownership of a bad economy," McConnell said. "That's a very bad positioning going into an election." [...]

What the hell is "Quinnipiac's Polling Institute"? Never heard of them. Just some university poll being used for White House spin? Gallop polls are more widely recognized, see what they say:

U.S. Debt Ceiling Increase Remains Unpopular With Americans
More are concerned about higher level of spending than risk of economic crisis
PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite agreement among leaders of both sides of the political aisle in Washington that raising the U.S. debt ceiling is necessary, more Americans want their member of Congress to vote against such a bill than for it, 42% vs. 22%, while one-third are unsure. This 20-percentage-point edge in opposition to raising the debt ceiling in Gallup's July 7-10 poll is slightly less than the 28-point lead (47% vs. 19%) seen in May. [...]

Sounds more believable to me. But a whopping 1/3 "unsure"? That's scary.

Even with 42% of voters against raising the debt ceiling, the Republicans will still allow Obama to do it, IF he also agrees to significant spending cuts. But he just can't (or won't) do it.

The press frequently called Bush "divisive", even as he frequently gave in to Democrats. But this president gives in to nothing, demonstrates no flexibility, and somehow, he's supposed to be a "uniter"? I'm not seeing it. And that's too bad, because a uniter is what we desperately need.

Gallup also said this:

On Deficit, Americans Prefer Spending Cuts; Open to Tax Hikes
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' preferences for deficit reduction clearly favor spending cuts to tax increases, but most Americans favor a mix of the two approaches. Twenty percent favor an approach that relies only on spending cuts and 4% favor an approach that uses tax increases alone.

[...]

Responses on both sides to a large degree reflect the arguments political leaders are making. Two of the most common, and arguably the dominant themes of the open-ended responses, are concerns about the effect that not raising the debt limit will have on the economy versus concerns that raising it will not sufficiently address government spending. In the same poll, Gallup asked Americans which of these two risks concerned them more, and the public expressed greater concern about raising the debt ceiling without a plan for major cuts in future government spending (51%) than about the potential harm to the economy if the debt ceiling is not raised (32%).

Implications

Government spending seems to be the primary worry for Americans when their opinions are probed about raising the debt limit. Government leaders appear to be listening, as party leaders are proposing major cuts in future government spending as a way to persuade members of Congress to vote for an increase in the nation's debt limit. In terms of deficit reduction, Americans seem to generally back an approach that relies more on spending cuts than tax increases. A key question to be answered in the days ahead is whether an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will include any tax increases. This is something many Republican members of Congress oppose, but most Americans do not seem to share this view. [...]

Large cuts in spending, along with some tax increases, would be a compromise that most Americans would accept. A true compromise would have to encompass both. The Republicans won't be able to budge from their position, unless Obama agrees to huge spending cuts. The President needs to take the lead in getting us there, but I doubt that he has what it takes.
     

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Presidents, Polls, Popularity and Graphs

Here is a link to a really neat inter-active graph that let's you compare approval ratings for various presidents since the 1940s:

Presidential approval tracker
The Gallup organization first started asking Americans how they approved of the job the president was doing in the 1940s. See how each president since then has fared in the approval poll, look at some news events that influenced public opinion and compare how approval ratings evolved for each president. [...]

Be sure and read the article just below the graph, too:

Polls can affect president's hold on party
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — A president's standing after his first six months in office doesn't forecast whether he'll have a successful four-year term, but it does signal how much political juice he'll have for his second six months in office.

That's the lesson of history.

Barack Obama, who completed six months in office Monday, has a 55% approval rating in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, putting him 10th among the dozen presidents who have served since World War II at this point in their tenures.

That's not as bad for Obama as it may sound: The six-month mark hasn't proved to be a particularly good indicator of how a president ultimately will fare.

Two-thirds of Americans approved of the jobs Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were doing at six months, but both would lose their bids for re-election.

And though the younger Bush and Bill Clinton had significantly lower ratings at 180 days — Clinton had sunk to 41% approval — both won second terms. [...]

I'm sure it is too early to say what the polls portend for Obama. So far his graph compares well with Ronald Reagan's and Jimmy Carters. But if the economy continues to tank and unemployment does not improve, I expect it will go the Carter way, rather than the Reagan one. Time will tell.
     

Saturday, May 03, 2008

McCain leads Obama and Clinton in Gallup poll

From Lydia Saad at Gallup Daily:

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves to 6-Point Lead Over Obama
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain has moved to a six percentage point, 48% to 42%, lead over Barack Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election, while he edges out Hillary Clinton by only one point, 46% to 45%.


This is according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 27-May 1 with 4,381 national registered voters.

The ongoing turmoil in the Democratic race -- with neither candidate able to sustain a winning streak in the primaries and animosity seemingly mounting between them -- seems to be benefiting McCain and hurting both Democrats. Last week McCain had fallen three points behind Clinton in the preferences of registered voters for the general election, and only tied Obama.

Although both Clinton and Obama have lost ground to McCain over the past week, the current results may be particularly troubling for Obama in trying to combat Clinton's assertion to superdelegates that she would be the more electable of the two candidates in November.

The current six-point margin for McCain over Obama is the largest lead McCain has had over either candidate since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in early March. The gap between Obama and Clinton's percentage of the vote when both are pitted against McCain is also the largest since the general election tracking began. [...]

(bold emphasis mine) Well that has cheered up my day. John McCain is doing a lot of things right, I admire the way he's been managing his campaign. You can read the rest of the article for details of the Democrat race.


Related Links:

Stuck in the middle

A riff on McCain - the right man at the right time

Obama: schizo, in denial or a pathological liar?
     

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Obama supporters agree: "God Damn America"


Gallup Daily: Obama Edges Ahead of Clinton
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has quickly made up the deficit he faced with Hillary Clinton earlier this week, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Democratic presidential nomination preferences showing 48% of Democratic voters favoring Obama and 45% Clinton.


Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Perhaps as a result, Clinton moved into the lead in Gallup's Wednesday release, covering March 16-18 polling. But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former rival for the nomination. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 2, 2008, click here.)

Both Democrats have inched closer to John McCain in the latest update on registered voters' general election preferences. McCain holds just a two percentage point edge over both -- 46% to 44% over Obama and 47% to 45% over Clinton. [...]

If the polls are to be believed, the anti-American beliefs expounded by Obama's church, and his controversial comments about race, are no cause for concern whatsoever, as those who support Obama most likely share those beliefs.

It would almost be funny if McCain loses due to a lack of support from the religious right, who then end up with Obama and the religious Wright instead.


Related Links:

Obama's speech      Race and politics      The Obama Bargain
     

Friday, February 15, 2008

McCain and Gallup polls as of Feb. 12-14

Here is the latest from Gallup.com:

Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008
Based on polling conducted Feb. 12-14, 2008

[...] John McCain's GOP nomination is all but assured now as former rival Mitt Romney endorsed him Thursday and asked his delegates to support McCain at the GOP convention. Mike Huckabee continues to campaign, though McCain is now just a few delegates short of clinching the nomination. The latest Gallup Poll Daily update shows McCain as the choice of 53% of nationwide Republican and Republican-leaning voters and Huckabee the preferred candidate of 28%.


Support for both Republican candidates has been fairly steady the last four days. -- Jeff Jones

How Does McCain’s Support Compare Historically?
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Most observers now say that with Sen. John McCain's victories in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia on Tuesday, he is all but certain to be the Republican nominee this year, based on mathematical calculations of the number of GOP delegates necessary to gain the nomination.

But Mike Huckabee continues to campaign vigorously against McCain, and the news media spend a substantial amount of time highlighting the alleged rifts within the Republican Party in terms of conservative unwillingness to support McCain as their party's nominee.

Gallup Poll Daily election tracking makes it possible to place McCain's current status as his party's presumptive nominee in historical perspective by providing the basis for a comparison to the support other front-runners have enjoyed in previous elections.

[...]

These data show that at 51%, McCain's current support level is relatively low compared with the support that presumptive nominees in either party have enjoyed since 1980 at the time Gallup finished its primary polling. In fact, only Mondale in 1984 had a lower level of support in the final Gallup survey.

Surveying over the next several days will show whether McCain's support picks up after news of his three wins on Tuesday -- or whether it drops, given the news that Huckabee did well in Virginia among religious, conservative Republicans. If McCain's support climbs to at least 55%, then he will at least be able to say that his support is where Ronald Reagan's was in 1980 at the point when he was assumed to have won his party's nomination. [...]

For detailed comparison with Republicans and Democrats in past Primaries, follow the link.

Also from Gallup:

McCain Holds His Own Against Obama, Clinton
     

Sunday, February 10, 2008

McCain and Gallup polls as of Feb. 7-9

Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008
Based on daily polling conducted Feb. 7-9, 2008

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Gallup Poll Daily election tracking results show John McCain with 57% of Republican preferences, and Mike Huckabee with 23%. These latest nationwide results from Feb. 7-9 polling among Republicans are based on the first three-day rolling average in which Mitt Romney no longer was listed as a candidate on any of the three days of interviewing.


Romney's vote has now been totally redistributed, and it is clear that McCain has been the beneficiary. Looking back, the Feb. 4-6 rolling average -- the last that included three days of polling before Romney's announcement that he was leaving the race -- showed Romney with 26% of the vote, McCain with 40%, and Huckabee with 21%. Now, with Romney's total down to 0%, McCain has picked up 17 points while Huckabee has gained only 2 points. The rest of Romney's vote went to "other," "don't know," Ron Paul (up 2 points), and Alan Keyes (up 1 point).

Since the close of Gallup polling on Saturday, Huckabee has received favorable press coverage for his good showing in Saturday's GOP voting -- winning Kansas and Louisiana and coming very close to McCain in Washington. Whether this gives Huckabee a bounce in national Republican preferences (including independents who lean Republican) will begin to be answered in Sunday's interviewing and reflected in Monday's report. [...]