Watch out for the Quadrantids

If you are lucky enough to have a clear sky to see them:



First meteor shower of 2015 peaks Saturday night

Grab a coat and head outside: The first meteor shower of the new year is set to peak tonight.

The annual Quadrantid meteor shower is popular with star watchers, who can see up to 80 meteors an hour, NASA says. Plus, Quadrantids are known for their “fireball meteors,” which are brighter and last longer than an average meteor streak.

This year, however, a bright, near-full moon is complicating matters for those who would like to wish on a shooting star – as are forecasts of cloudy skies in the eastern United States. Central and Southwest stargazers should still have a clear view, The Washington Post reports.

[...]

The Quadrantids aren’t the only items of interest visible in the night sky this weekend. Comet Lovejoy, which was discovered in August, is visible with binoculars and, for those far away from city lights, the naked eye, the Monitor’s Pete Spotts reports. The comet, which is expected to make its closest approach to Earth on Jan. 7, is rising higher in the northern sky. By Jan. 7, it will be appearing to the right of the bottom half of Orion’s bow, above the constellation Eridanus.

To view Saturday night’s meteor shower, NASA suggests finding a spot away from street lights.

“Lay flat on your back with your feet facing northeast and look up, taking in as much of the sky as possible. In less than 30 minutes in the dark, your eyes will adapt and you will begin to see meteors,” NASA says. “Be patient – the show will last until dawn, so you have plenty of time to catch a glimpse.” [...]

Looks like we'll have clouds moving in tonight, darn it. Maybe there will be some breaks in the clouds. And there will still be comet Lovejoy to look for in a few days.
     

Solar Activity, Double Flare

2 major solar flares Friday -- the second twice as intense as the first

The sun shot out a pair of gigantic solar flares early Friday -- the second one even bigger than the first, a NOAA expert tells the Los Angeles Times.

An X1-class solar flare occurred at about 1 a.m. PDT, followed by an even larger one about eight hours later.

"This one was an X2, twice as intense as the X1 that just occurred," said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in an interview Friday morning.

News of the latest activity came as NASA released a spectacular video and image, see above, of a solar eruption in September, what the space agency termed a "canyon of fire."

The video shows a 200,000-mile-long filament leaping from the atmosphere of the sun and creating a rippling, glowing canyon, which "traces the channel where magnetic fields held the filament aloft before the explosion," NASA says.

So what's with all the activity? Our home star is hitting solar maximum in its 11-year cycle activity, and scientists had predicted it would be meh -- a wimpier maximum than in cycles past.

[...]

The sunspot group that has been active Friday is rotating nearer the center of the sun, he noted. If the flares keep up, there could be more serious effects in store for Earth in the next three or four days.

Murtagh said that indeed this is the "lowest solar maximum since back in the 1900-1910 time frame." But that doesn't mean that X-class flares and their attendant problems will not occur. [...]

If you follow the link, it has video.

     

Big Solar Flares this weekend?

Maybe:

Sunspot Blasting Out Major Solar Flares Will Face Earth Soon

The super-active sunspot responsible for unleashing the three most powerful solar flares of 2013 within a 24-hour stretch this week is slowly rotating toward Earth and will likely be facing our planet by the weekend, experts say.

Active Region 1748, as the sunspot is known, unleashed three monster solar flares between Sunday and Monday (May 12 to 13). Every one of the solar storms registered as an X-class flare — the most powerful type — with each successive event stronger than the last, culminating in an X3.2 megablast Monday night.

These solar explosions did not affect Earth, since AR1748 was not facing our planet at the time. But the sunspot is now circling into view, so future flares and any associated eruptions of super-hot solar plasma — called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — could potentially target our planet, scientists say. [Sun Unleashes Biggest Flares of 2013 (Photos)]

"In a couple of days, it will be far enough onto the disk that any CMEs that we got would probably have some impact on Earth," solar astrophysicist C. Alex Young, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., told SPACE.com.

AR1748 should be near the center of the solar disk by around Saturday, Young added.

"If it sends something off, then we can expect to get some CMEs sort of head-on" at that point, he said.

[...]

Scientists give AR1748 a 40 to 50 percent chance of firing off another X-class flare, he added, though this probability is a rough estimate that could change as further information becomes available.

X-class flares aimed at Earth can have consequences on a planet-wide scale, triggering widespread radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

Earth-directed CMEs have even more destructive potential. When a CME's charged particles interact with Earth's magnetic field, they can spawn geomagnetic storms powerful enough to disrupt GPS signals, radio communications and power grids.

Solar activity waxes and wanes over an 11-year cycle. The current cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is ramping up toward an expected peak later this year. [...]

See the full article for embedded link, and video.
     

The 2012 Perseids Peak Tomorrow

Don't miss the Perseids on the starry night of August 12th

How can I best view the Perseids meteor shower?

The Perseids have been observed by humans for about 2000 years, with the earliest knowledge of their existence emerging from the Far East. It is one of the finest meteor showers to observe, producing up to 60-100 bright, fast, and colorful meteors per hour during their peak. This annual meteor shower is active from July 23 through August 22, and usually peaks on August 11 and 12.

Perseids is extremely consistent in its timing and can potentially be observable for several weeks in the summer sky, conditional on your whereabouts, lighting conditions, and weather. Meteor showers are commonly named after their radiant point, the perspective point in the sky from which the meteors appear to come from. In the case of Perseids, it is named after the constellation Perseus, which is positioned in approximately the same point in which the Perseids meteor shower appears to originate from.

While this summer spectacular appears to radiate from a constellation, they are actually caused by the Earth passing through the dust particles of the comet Swift-Tuttle. Each summer, Earth passes into a trail of dust left by this comet, and as a result, all the dust and debris burning up in our atmosphere, travelling at a very fast 132,000 miles per second (59 km/s), produces the spectacle known as the Perseids meteor shower, or what are popularly recognized as “shooting stars”. There's no danger to sky watchers, though. The fragile grains disintegrate long before they reach the ground.

While the meteors are certainly bright, they are typically not much larger than a grain of sand. However, as they travel at immense speeds, these tiny particles put on an impressive show. Due to the way the comet’s orbit is tilted, dust from the Swift-Tuttle falls on Earth’s northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, this leads to extremely low visibility for those in Australia, New Zealand, and portions of South America.

In 2012, the waning crescent moon occurring on August 12 will not have a negative impact on the visibility of the Perseids. Due to the lack of bright moonlight, the fainter meteors will not be concealed from view. It is advisable to observe the meteor shower during the predawn hours on the mornings of August 11, 12, and 13. With up to 60-100 meteors per hour predicted, observers may catch plenty of bright meteors streaking along in the light of the moon.

How do I know the sky is dark enough to see meteors?

If you happen to live near a brightly lit city, if possible, we recommend that you drive away from the glow of city light. After you’ve escaped the glow of the city, find a dark, safe, and possibly isolated spot where oncoming vehicle headlights will not occasionally ruin your sensitive night vision. Look for state or city parks or other safe dark-sites.

Once you have settled down at your observation spot, look approximately half way up the sky facing northeast. This way you can have the Perseids’ radiant within your field of view. Looking directly up at the sky or into the radiant is not recommended since this is just the point in which they appear to come from. You are more likely to see a trail when looking slightly away from this point. Looking half-way up into the sky will lead to the best show in the house!

     

Dramatic Aurora seen in Oregon last Sunday

Auroral Lights Color the Skies

A double-burst of solar particles sparked auroral lights over the weekend, as expected — but at least in some parts of the world, the colors were not what you'd expect. Instead of the typical greenish glow, observers reported seeing reds, pinks, violets and even blues.

"It's been many years since I saw the blue in our auroras, but Saturday night they came back," John Welling reported in a note accompanying the photo he posted to SpaceWeather.com.

Pinks, reds and blues also dominated the scene captured on camera early Sunday by Brad Goldpaint, from a vantage point above Oregon's Crater Lake. Goldpaint says the opportunity came about "by pure coincidence."

"Capturing this famous light show had been a dream of mine for several years, but I could not have imagined the lights showing up in my own backyard!" Goldpaint wrote in an email.

The colors of the aurora depend on the wavelength of the light emitted when fast-moving, electrically charged particles from the sun interact with different types of atoms and ions in Earth's upper atmosphere. If the particles hit mostly oxygen atoms, the light will be in the greenish-yellowish-reddish range. Collisions with nitrogen atoms produce the blue, purple and deep red hues.

The altitude of the auroral glow also affects the color: At altitudes between 60 and 120 miles, the oxygen emissions tend toward the green side of the spectrum. At higher altitudes, you'll see more red. Blend all those colors, and you get a beautiful, wide-ranging palette. [...]

The site has more photos, and some video.
     

"On a moonless night in a dark place, you can see your shadow in Venusian light"

Venus, Jupiter, crescent moon meeting up this weekend

[...] The last four weeks or so have been a spectacular time for stargazers, or, more precisely, planet-watchers. Venus and Jupiter have had a conjunction, and on March 13 passed so close to each other in the night sky that they could have exchanged business cards. Throw in the moon on Sunday and Monday nights and it’s a must-look situation.

“When you get a configuration like this, people who don’t normally look up above the horizon find that their eyeballs are being hijacked,” said Alan MacRobert, an amateur astronomer and senior editor at Sky & Telescope magazine.

More news is on the horizon: On June 5, Venus will transit the sun, the last such transit until 2117. With a safe solar filter, the tiny black dot of Venus will be visible as it gradually moves across the sun’s face.

[...]

What’s unfolding Sunday and Monday nights is a reprise of what happened Feb. 25 and 26, when the crescent moon slipped past Jupiter and Venus. The two planets have a conjunction like this about once every 24 years, said Geoff Chester, spokesman for the U.S. Naval Observatory.

This is what’s known as an evening apparition of Venus (it can be a morning star or an evening star), and it has been particularly sublime because the planet is relatively high in the sky. The second rock from the sun is near its greatest “elongation” — as far as it ever gets from the sun as seen from Earth — and so it’s up in the sky for a long time before it sets.

It’s also preposterously brilliant. Its magnitude is almost at the maximum for Venus — minus 4.4. (The lower the magnitude, the brighter the object.) On a moonless night in a dark place, you can see your shadow in Venusian light, Chester said.

“The circumstances for this evening apparition are about as good as they get,” Chester said. “Then you throw Jupiter into the mix, which is usually the second brightest planet, then you’ve got a couple months when the moon is playing footsie with them. And that’s what makes it particularly interesting.”

Those unfamiliar with such things should be warned that planet-watching is a subtle pleasure, enhanced by the right attitude. Not much actually happens. The planets don’t zoom around. Nothing collides or explodes. There are no cameo appearances by comets. The moon and planets will drop below the horizon by late evening and some people may feel the need to find an after-party. [...]

I have seen them on the few cloudless nights we've had recently. I thought it was dramatic.

     

Who's Missing a Planet?

We are, apparently. And not a rocky one, like the asteroid belt might have been formed from. THIS missing planet was supposedly a Gas Giant:


Did our solar system once harbor an extra planet?

A computer simulation has shown that our solar system couldn't have formed without an extra planet. But if that theory is true, what happened to it?

A new study based on computer simulations has demonstrated that our solar system might be missing a planet. In fact, without an extra planet, it seems unlikely that our solar system could have formed at all, reports PhysOrg.com.

The startling discovery suggests that Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune were not the only gas giant planets around during the formation of our solar system. There had to be a fifth gas giant, similar to Uranus and Neptune, orbiting some 15 times further from the sun than our planet Earth.

David Nesvorny from Colorado’s Southwest Research Institute reached the conclusion after performing around 6,000 computer simulations about the formation of the solar system, nearly all of which required the extra planet to work. Almost all of the simulations that factored in only the planets we know of in our solar system showed the four gas giants violently destroying one another. In the few simulations in which they survived, several of the rocky planets, such as Earth, were destroyed instead.

After adding the mysterious fifth planet, Nesvorny was able to greatly improve the odds of our solar system forming as we currently know it.

So the question remains: if our solar system is missing a planet, what happened to it?

The computer simulations also explain the fifth planet's fate. [...]

Read the whole thing to find out.

Interesting. Theoretical, but interesting.
     

Just what IS an "X-Class" Solar Flare?

This is a pretty good explanation:

Solar Flares: What Does It Take to Be X-Class?

Solar flares are giant explosions on the sun that send energy, light and high speed particles into space. These flares are often associated with solar magnetic storms known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The number of solar flares increases approximately every 11 years, and the sun is currently moving towards another solar maximum, likely in 2013. That means more flares will be coming, some small and some big enough to send their radiation all the way to Earth.

The biggest flares are known as "X-class flares" based on a classification system that divides solar flares according to their strength. The smallest ones are A-class (near background levels), followed by B, C, M and X. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. So an X is ten times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class there is a finer scale from 1 to 9.

[...]

Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9. The most powerful flare measured with modern methods was in 2003, during the last solar maximum, and it was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. The sensors cut out at X28.

The biggest X-class flares are by far the largest explosions in the solar system and are awesome to watch. Loops tens of times the size of Earth leap up off the sun's surface when the sun's magnetic fields cross over each other and reconnect. In the biggest events, this reconnection process can produce as much energy as a billion hydrogen bombs.

If they're directed at Earth, such flares and associated CMEs can create long lasting radiation storms that can harm satellites, communications systems, and even ground-based technologies and power grids. X-class flares on December 5 and December 6, 2006, for example, triggered a CME that interfered with GPS signals being sent to ground-based receivers. [...]

Follow the link for more info about all the different classes of flares, and a video too.


Also see: TheTchijevsky Index of Mass Human Excitability
     

The Perseids are Peaking Now

The annual August meteor shower, that is:

PERSEID METEOR SHOWER

Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. International observers are now reporting more than 20 Perseids per hour, a number that will increase as the shower reaches its peak on August 12-13.

Last night in Arizona, photographer Marsha Adams caught a Perseid meteor shooting over Ship Rock near Sedona:


"The meteor was bright enough to be seen through the glaring moonlight that was illuminating the landscape," notes Adams. [...]

What an excellent photo! A full moon is not generally considered a good thing for watching a meteor shower, but Marsha made it work for her with this picture.

Also see:

Meteor Shower 2011: How to See the Perseids
     

July's Planets, and Starry Night Software

Sky watchers may enjoy watching the show this month, starting tomorrow:


Night Sky News: Holiday Planets on Display

[...] Starting on July 2, a razor thin crescent will hang just below the innermost planet (most difficult date to find-extremely close to horizon) and by July 4 the widening crescent Moon will pair up with the 77 light year distant star Regulus. Continuing its trek up the south-western sky, the quarter Moon joins Saturn on July 7. [...]

The article says the image above was generated by Starry Night Software. I have an older version of the software that came with a telescope I bought several years ago. It can plot the constellations, stars and planets for you, and show you where they are in the sky in real time. The software is really neat; the newer version looks even more advanced. Space fans may want to check it out.
     

The Planets Line Up with the Moon

Well at least they did. Actually, this morning was the last chance to see them lined up with the Moon. But then planets themselves will continue to be lined up for a couple of weeks:

Six Planets Now Aligned in the Dawn Sky

If you get up any morning for the next few weeks, you’ll be treated to the sight of all the planets except Saturn arrayed along the ecliptic, the path of the sun through the sky.

For the last two months, almost all the planets have been hiding behind the sun, but this week they all emerge and are arrayed in a grand line above the rising sun. Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are visible, and you can add Uranus and Neptune to your count if you have binoculars or a small telescope.

[...]

While astrologers view planetary alignments as foretellers of disasters, modern amateur astronomers look forward to them as nothing more than grand photo ops.

If you go out any morning for the next four days, you’ll be treated to a view of the crescent moon and all but one of the naked eye planets.

Because the moon moves rapidly from one morning to the next, it will only be part of the lineup for the next four mornings, but the four naked-eye planets will be there for the next few weeks.

Venus is, as always, the brightest and most visible of the planets, and it can be your guide to spotting the others. About half way between Venus and the rising sun is Jupiter, the second brightest planet.

Mars will be a tiny speck just above Jupiter, and Mercury another tiny speck about half way between Jupiter and Venus. Uranus is slightly more than one binocular field above and to the right of Venus, and Neptune is much farther to the right, about 40 degrees away in Aquarius. The Moon will be just above Venus on Saturday morning, and just above Jupiter and Mars on Sunday morning. [...]

I read somewhere that ancient peoples thought it was a bad omen, because they believed the planets were gods. Ignorance believes all kinds of things.

The article also mentions that there will be no planetary lineup occurring in 2012, no matter what the New Age Dingbats claim. So enjoy it while you can ;-)
     

"Blue moon, you saw me standing alone..."

Those are words from a song. We are going to have a blue moon tonight.


But of course, it won't actually be blue:

If skies are clear, blue moon will light up New Year's Eve

A blue moon will be upon us tonight.

Astronomers and astrologers disagree on a blue moon's significance, but they agree it's rare for one to rise on New Year's Eve.

Once in a blue moon, as the saying goes.

They happen every two to three years and aren't really blue. Blue moon is the term given to the second full moon in a month. According to NASA, the term originated in the time of Shakespeare to mean a rare occurrence, and the Farmer's Almanac of Maine defined it in the 1930s as the third full moon in a season that has four. But the 1946 definition as the second full moon of the month is the one that has stuck.

[...]

"Astrology aside, there is the system of understanding that this is the last day of the year," said Cynthia Killion, a Wichita psychic and astrologer.

Combined with a blue moon, "it is a very loaded, energetically intense and powerful time. It gives people extra power in making resolutions and change."

[...]

During the midst of the Great Depression in 1934, Richard Rodgers and Lorenz Hart wrote this song:

"Blue moon, you saw me standing alone,

Without a dream in my heart,

Without a love of my own.

Blue moon, you knew just what I was there for,

You heard me saying a prayer for

Someone I really could care for."

[...]

Tonight, look up in the sky and see the latest blue moon. And take from it what you will.

"This moon puts a lot of pressure on us to make change," Killion said. "It is a not-so-gentle push from the universe telling us to get off our butts and change.

"The blue moon is considered somewhat of a blessing, like a doorway might be opened for miracles."

Just like in the song:

"And when I looked the moon had turned to gold.

Blue moon, now I'm no longer alone,

Without a dream in my heart, without a love of my own

Without a love of my own."

Blessings? Miracles? Sounds good to me, we could all use some. Make of it what you will.

     

Geminids Meteor Shower Tonight and Tomorrow

Geminids Meteor Shower Peaks December 13th and 14th 2009

The Geminids meteor showers peak in the early morning hours of December 14. According to Dr. Tony Phillips, Production Editor for Science@NASA, the show is predicted to peak at 12:10 am EST on December 14 and may reach 140 meteors per hour. The showers can be observed for hours or days surrounding the peak time. Meteors radiate from the constellation of Gemini earning them the name of Geminids.

The Geminid Meteor Showers have consistently increased in intensity over recent decades and are expected to continue that trend. Not only has the rate of meteors increased, the size and brightness has shown a steady increase, as well. Some predictions indicate that the Geminids may increase as much as 20% to 50% within the next few decades resulting in excess of 200 meteors an hour.

Meteor showers occur when Earth travels through ice and rocky debris left behind from comets on its yearly cycle around the sun. In the case of the Geminids, Earth travels through the trail of debris left behind from 3200 Phaethon, once believed to an asteroid. 3200 Phaethon is now classified as an extinct comet that has left behind a skeleton of debris as it deteriorates from it is many passes near the sun.

Earth passes through Phaethon's path of debris each December. Jupiter's gravity has pulled the debris closer to Earth's orbit causing the earth to plunge deeper into the debris stream with each yearly pass, resulting in more visible meteors each year.

According to the International Meteor Association, viewers should expect bright slow moving meteors that may exhibit flashes of color. The new moon promises unobstructed viewing, if weather cooperates and skies are clear. Those in the Northern Hemisphere should view in the hours after midnight for the best show. [...]

I saw a bunch tonight, some were very large with long tails. The viewing should get better into the morning hours, but I have to go to work tomorrow.
     

After the Repairs: The New Hubble Photographs

Superb vistas from reborn Hubble

Astronomers are celebrating the release of remarkable new images from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST).

They prove the mission carried out by astronauts in May to service the observatory was an outstanding success.

The latest pictures include trademark Hubble visions - from colliding galaxies to dying stars.

Nasa says the orbiting telescope, regarded as one of the most important scientific tools ever built, should keep working until at least 2014.

The Atlantis shuttle mission in May was the fifth and final Hubble makeover.

The US space agency and its international partners plan now to concentrate their efforts on preparing a bigger and more capable observatory known as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

Wednesday's release of pictures was the usual tour de force that astronomers have come to expect following a Hubble servicing. [...]

To see more photos, follow the above link, and then click on the link below the Butterfly Nebula to see a larger image of that. From there you will be able to view a selection of recent photos.
     

Sunspots and Solar Minimums: what they mean

How are the lack of sunspots related to a Solar Minimum, and how does that affect temperatures here on earth? And what about our current solar cycle?


I had read a while back, in an article that I can't find now, that the lack of sunspots doesn't cause the sun to be significantly cooler, and does not cool the earth down significantly either. The cooler temperatures happen indirectly. If I understand it correctly:

Sunspots are magnetic storms on the sun's surface. They cause solar winds, that in turn cause ions in the earth's upper atmosphere to become charged, churning the air which affects the wind currents on the earth.

The earth's oceans absorb much of the suns heat, warming the air above, and the earth's westerly winds blow that warmer air over the oceans westward onto land masses, raising the temperature there.

When sun spot activity is very low or non-existent, the ions in the upper atmosphere are less charged, there is less air movement, and the westerly winds die down, leaving more of the warmer air over the oceans. As a result, there is a significant drop of temperatures over the land masses.

Fascinating stuff. I couldn't find that article, but while searching for it I came across the following articles about our current solar cycle. As the new solar cycle continues to be weak, lacking significant sunspot activity, it seems we are in a solar minimum.

There has even been speculation by some that we are entering a "mini-ice age" like the historical "Maunder Minimum":


Wikipedia: Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum is the name used for the period roughly spanning 1645 to 1715 by John A. Eddy in a landmark 1976 paper published in Science titled "The Maunder Minimum",[1] when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. Astronomers before Eddy had also named the period after the solar astronomer Edward W. Maunder (1851–1928) who studied how sunspot latitudes changed with time.[2] The periods he examined included the second half of the 17th century. Edward Maunder published two papers in 1890 and 1894, and he cited earlier papers written by Gustav Spörer. The Maunder Minimum's duration was derived from Spörer's work. Like the Dalton Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Maunder Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to a more typical 40,000–50,000 spots in modern times. [...]

As Wikipedia points out, there have also been smaller solar minimums, like the Dalton and Spörer minimums. We may be experiencing a minimum, but it's size may be unpredictable. I would say comparing it to the "Maunder Minimum" could be premature. Yet some astronomers are taking it even further than being just a minimum:

ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING?

[...] According to Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, sunspot magnetic fields are waning. The two respected solar astronomers have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992. Their technique is based on Zeeman splitting of infrared spectral lines emitted by iron atoms in the vicinity of sunspots. Extrapolating their data into the future suggests that sunspots could completely disappear within decades. That would be a bummer for Spaceweather.com.

Don't count out sunspots just yet, however. While the data of Livingston and Penn are widely thought to be correct, far-reaching extrapolations may be premature. This type of measurement is relatively new, and the data reaches back less than 17 years. [...]

Yes, 17 years is nothing in the lifespan of the sun. Not enough data to make long term predictions. In fact, for all we know about the sun now, it's amazing how much we can't predict, as this NASA article shows:

Deep Solar Minimum

April 1, 2009: The sunspot cycle is behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom, it goes even lower.

2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008.

Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).

It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center.

"This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

[...]

Quiet suns come along every 11 years or so. It's a natural part of the sunspot cycle, discovered by German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe in the mid-1800s. Sunspots are planet-sized islands of magnetism on the surface of the sun; they are sources of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and intense UV radiation. Plotting sunspot counts, Schwabe saw that peaks of solar activity were always followed by valleys of relative calm—a clockwork pattern that has held true for more than 200 years: plot [see article for link].

The current solar minimum is part of that pattern. In fact, it's right on time. "We're due for a bit of quiet—and here it is," says Pesnell.

But is it supposed to be this quiet?

[...]

All these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird", "extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually intense solar maxima.

"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."

Deep calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913, for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to last at least another year.

[...]

Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum will end and how big the next solar maximum will be. Pesnell has surveyed the scientific literature and prepared a "piano plot" showing the range of predictions. The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.

Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013. [...]

The article has a lot of particulars, about the new "lows" the minimum is causing, in the rate of solar wind pressure, irradiance, and solar radio emissions. Read the whole thing for the details.

The article began with a comparison to the stock market, and ends with one. The sun and the stock market may well have something in common; no one can know and completely understand ALL the forces at work behind the scenes that drive them, and therefore, no one can completely predict their behavior. But plenty of people still take "educated guesses" about both.

You can read more about what Livingston and Penn say about sunspots during a solar minimum in this PDF document online:

Are Sunspots Different During This Solar Minimum?

They talk in more detail about what they are measuring, how they are measuring it, and what it might mean.


Related Links:

Where have all the sunspots gone, and why?

Our climate, the weather, our grid and the Sun

Solar Flare: The "Carrington Event" of 1859
     

The Perseid Meteor Shower, 2009

They said the peak of the showers were visible last night. It was overcast here, so we couldn't see them. Viewing should still be good tonight though:

Perseids: What They Are, How to Watch the Meteors, More

[...] The greatest concentration of Perseid meteors will hit Earth's atmosphere this afternoon, when they should be largely invisible in North America. But tonight should be just as good a show as last night (Perseids picture from 2008).

To watch, pack a blanket, bug spray, and snacks, then lie on your back away from city lights, with a view of as much of the sky as possible. The best viewing hours should be whenever skies are clear and whenever the moon isn't present. For example, the U.S. East Coast should have moonless skies between about 10:45 p.m. and 1 a.m. (check your local moonrise and moonset times).

Look for the shooting stars to streak out from the northeast to points across the sky, especially at and after midnight (see animated diagram below). [...]

The shower actually continues on till August 25th. But after the peak which is occurring now, the amount of meteors you see will be less numerous, but still fun to watch for.

Also see: Night Sky Observer: Perseids 2009
     

Largest Full Moon in 15 years

That was last night, when it was at it's peak:


Look up tonight for a spectacular treat in the sky

If the full moon tonight looks unusually large, it is not your imagination – it is the biggest and brightest full moon to be seen for 15 years.

Each month the Moon makes a full orbit around the Earth in a slightly oval-shaped path, and tonight it will swing by the Earth at its closest distance, or perigee. It will pass by 356,613km (221,595 miles) away, which is about 28,000km closer than average.

The unusual feature of tonight is that the perigee also coincides with a full moon, which will make it appear 14 per cent bigger and some 30 per cent brighter than most full moons this year – so long as the clouds hold off from blocking the view.

The next closest encounter with a full moon this large will not be until November 14, 2016. [...]

The photo above was taken from Fayetteville, N.C. on Friday, Dec. 12, 2008. The moon should still appear large and bright for the next few days, so have a look if you can.
     

There will be a Full Lunar Eclipse Tonight

It's supposed to be visable from all locations in North America, weather permitting. Here in Oregon though, the eclipse will begin just before the moon begins to rise above the horizon. By the time it rises above our tree-line, it will already be well into it. It also might be cloudy. Oh well. I'll be having a look anyway, since it's early our time.

Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight

By Robert Roy Britt, Senior Science Writer
posted: 20 February 2008 08:25 am ET

A total eclipse of the moon tonight is expected to delight skywatchers across the United States and much of the world.

It will be the last total lunar eclipse until 2010.

The easy-to-watch event will play out in several stages as Earth's shadow blocks sunlight from shining on the moon. Weather permitting, the eclipse will be visible from all locations in the United States, according to NASA. Along the Oregon and northern California coasts, the moon will rise during the early stages of the eclipse, however.

When to watch

Eclipses occur only at full moon when the sun, Earth and moon are in a perfect line. Because the moon's orbit around Earth is not perfectly aligned with the plane of Earth's orbit around the sun, eclipses do not occur at every full moon.

The moon will enter Earth's umbral shadow (the full shadow) at 8:43 p.m. ET (that's 7:43 p.m. Central, 6:43 p.m. Mountain and 5:43 p.m. Pacific) on Wednesday, Feb. 20. It will appear as though an ever-larger bite is being taken out of the moon.

Some 78 minutes later, the moon will slip into full eclipse. About 51 minutes later, a bright scallop will appear as the moon starts emerging. It will be completely out of the umbral shadow at 9:09 p.m. Pacific time, which is 12:09 a.m. ET on Thursday morning. [...]

Have you ever wondered why the moon looks red during an eclipse? It's our sunsets and sunrises on earth being projected onto the lunar surface:

[...] The redness occurs because while the moon is in total shadow, some light from the sun passes through Earth's atmosphere and is bent toward the moon. The effect is to cast all the planet's sunrises and sunsets on the moon.

Christopher Columbus famously used a blood-red eclipse in 1504 to frighten natives on Jamaica into feeding his crew. [...]

Is that cool, or what? Check out the link to the www.livescience.com website for more information and diagrams about Lunar eclipses. This will be the last total lunar eclipse until 2010, so make the most of it if you can.
     

An "Earth-Like" new world discovered?

I think they might really be stretching the meaning of "earth-like".

From the British Daily Mail online:
Found 20 light years away: the New Earth

[...] "Because of its temperature and relative proximity, this planet will most probably be a very important target of the future space missions dedicated to the search for extraterrestrial life."

Gliese 581 is among the closest stars to us, just 20.5 light years away (about 120 trillion miles) in the constellation Libra. It is so dim it can be seen only with a good telescope.

[...]

It has a mass five times that of Earth, probably made of the same sort of rock as makes up our world and with enough gravity to hold a substantial atmosphere.

Astrobiologists - scientists who study the possibility of alien life - refer to a climate known as the Goldilocks Zone, where it is not so cold that water freezes and not so hot that it boils, but where it can lie on the planet's surface as a liquid.

[...]

The surface gravity is probably around twice that of the Earth and the atmosphere could be similar to ours.

Although the new planet is in itself very Earth-like, its solar system is about as alien as could be imagined. The star at the centre - Gliese 581 - is small and dim, only about a third the size of our Sun and about 50 times cooler.

The two other planets are huge, Neptune-sized worlds called Gliese 581b and d (there is no "a", to avoid confusion with the star itself).

The Earth-like planet orbits its sun at a distance of only six million miles or so (our Sun is 93 million miles away), travelling so fast that its "year" only lasts 13 of our days.

The parent star would dominate the view from the surface - a huge red ball of fire that must be a spectacular sight.

It is difficult to speculate what - if any - life there is on the planet. If there is life there it would have to cope with the higher gravity and solar radiation from its sun.


Just because Gliese 581c is habitable does not mean that it is inhabited, but we do know its sun is an ancient star - in fact, it is one of the oldest stars in the galaxy, and extremely stable. If there is life, it has had many billions of years to evolve.

This makes this planet a prime target in the search for life. According to Seth Shostak, of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in California, the Gliese system is now a prime target for a radio search. 'We had actually looked at this system before but only for a few minutes. We heard nothing, but now we must look again.'

By 2020 at least one space telescope should be in orbit, with the capability of detecting signs of life on planets orbiting nearby stars. If oxygen or methane (tell-tale biological gases) are found in Gliese 581c's atmosphere, this would be good circumstantial evidence for life.

Dr Malcolm Fridlund, a European Space Agency scientist, said the discovery of Gliese 581c was "an important step" on the road to finding life. [...]

The article is full of all sorts of details. The scientists are speculating a lot though; speculating is not facts. Still, some of their educated guesses are interesting, and the data they can collect does present a lot of possibilities.

While the planet isn't truly like earth, it may be earth-like in the sense that it comes closer to being like earth than any other planet we've been able to detect.

As technology advances, I'm sure we will be able to observe more, even from such a far distance. But to really find things out, we'll have to go there. And that, I expect, is a long ways off!