Why Apps Won't Matter in the Future: Aggregators

... and smart bots and personal assistants:



Oh, and streaming. As technologies quickly change and evolve, so will the many ways we use them. Today's solution is tomorrow's history. The video also points out why these developments and trends are both exciting and scary.

     

The Business and Political Elite at Davos

Their opinions about high tech changes, and what they mean:

Internet will 'disappear', Google boss tells Davos

Google boss Eric Schmidt predicted on Thursday that the Internet will soon be so pervasive in every facet of our lives that it will effectively "disappear" into the background. Speaking to the business and political elite at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Schmidt said: "There will be so many sensors, so many devices, that you won't even sense it, it will be all around you."

"It will be part of your presence all the time. Imagine you walk into a room and... you are interacting with all the things going on in that room." "A highly personalized, highly interactive and very interesting world emerges." On the sort of high-level panel only found among the ski slopes of Davos, a panel bringing together the heads of Google, Facebook and Microsoft and Vodafone sought to allay fears that the rapid pace of technological advance was killing jobs.

"Everyone's worried about jobs," admitted Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook. With so many changes in the technology world, "the transformation is happening faster than ever before," she acknowledged. "But tech creates jobs not only in the tech space but outside," she insisted. Schmidt quoted statistics he said showed that every tech job created between five and seven jobs in a different area of the economy. "If there were a single digital market in Europe, 400 million new and important new jobs would be created in Europe," which is suffering from stubbornly high levels of unemployment. The debate about whether technology is destroying jobs "has been around for hundreds of years," said the Google boss. What is different is the speed of change.

"It's the same that happened to the people who lost their farming jobs when the tractor came... but ultimately a globalised solution means more equality for everyone." With one of the main topics at this year's World Economic Forum being how to share out the fruits of global growth, the tech barons stressed that the greater connectivity offered by their companies ultimately helps reduce inequalities. "Are the spoils of tech being evenly spread? That is an issue that we have to tackle head on," said Satya Nadella, chief executive of Microsoft. [...]

They are entitled to their opinions as anyone else. But I don't necessarily believe them. The problem with "Elites" is, they don't live in the same world as the rest of us. They can think whatever they like, but it doesn't necessarily make it so. And some of their ideas are downright creepy. Is their vision the Brave New World we are headed for? Because if that is what they are aiming for, I would guess that there will be unintended and unforeseen consequences that they have not anticipated.


More fun from the Davos Elites:

You’ve entered The Hypocrisy Zone: Billionaire Democrat wants YOU to downsize your lifestyle
     

Too much of a good thing? Are too many wireless plug-ins turning us into "The Borg"?

802.11n Wi-Fi making huge impact 1 year after standard ratified
Wave of RF innovation leading to Ethernet-like Wi-Fi

Shipments of 802.11n access points have accelerated since the IEEE standard was formally approved one year ago. But what the numbers alone don't show is the new reality of Wi-Fi networks: they are fast becoming the preferred way to connect and stay connected in the enterprise.

And that reality is sparking new demand from enterprise customers, and new innovation from wireless LAN vendors, to make Wi-Fi networks "work" like wired Ethernet – reliably, consistently, securely – for all kinds of traffic, including video.

"Enterprise wireless LAN vendors are continuing to work on spectrum management and other features for 2011 to create a self-adapting, self-healing wireless LAN," says Paul DeBeasi, vice president, research director, with Gartner's network and telecom strategies group. "The idea is a wireless network that will function like a wired network in terms of performance and reliability."

Ground zero for the 11n revolution is the college campus, with hospitals not far behind. Colleges and universities have a growing population of the unplugged: students who've never used an Ethernet cable. They have the expectation that whatever device they have will be able to connect wirelessly, and handle games, YouTube videos and "American Idol", all in addition to classroom applications.

What's more, says Jeffrey Sessler, director, information technology at Scripps College, Claremont, Calif., is that each student often now has "multiple Wi-Fi-enabled devices needing regular access." One student can have a game console, smartphone or Skype phone, laptop or tablet (or even both), printer, and Internet radio/alarm clock. [...]

When I was in college, I had an Underwood manual typewriter that wasn't wirelessly connected to anything. And neither was I. Somehow, I got by.

I'm not a Luddite, I love technology, when it's used wisely. It's just that I've noticed that the younger generation seems increasingly "plugged into" something, all the time. When people are always plugged into something that's bombarding them with information, it has to start to "shape" them. Perhaps even create a psychological dependency. I start to wonder what they would be like, without all the plug-ins.

Ideally, all this "information technology" is supposed to improve our lives by making our everyday reality easier by making the exchange and flow of information easier. But to what extent is it now creating our reality? Even a kind of "virtual" reality, a kind of mass-mind or "hive" consciousness, that actually distracts us from the more ordinary reality of just being alive, a living human being, the way we were in the pre-wireless world?

I used to take breaks from the computer and the internet, just stop using it for days or even weeks at a time, because I felt that using it constantly and relentlessly kind of put me in a "artificial" state of mind, living in a world of ideas more than living in the actual world I'm living in. Taking breaks from it made me feel more balanced. And when I went back to the computer/internet, I would enjoy it more, because of the contrast.

Nowadays, I find it harder to take those breaks. Oh sure, I take short breaks, but not for long. At minimum, I have to consult the internet to find out what the weather is going to be like, to see the on-line satellite maps, so I can plan my day on the farm or at work in town. Then there are work-related emails, and things I need to buy that I have to do on-line, or items or things I need to research on-line.

Clearly, I've become more dependent on the machine. But still, I'm not plugged in ALL the time. I don't have "the expectation that whatever device I have will be able to connect wirelessly", nor do I have "multiple Wi-Fi-enabled devices needing regular access." That just sounds kinda, well, creepy. People may want all that stuff; but do they really need it?

And let's not forget, that all this "wireless" stuff is done through radio waves. As this wireless radio traffic continues to increase, it's literally passing through our bodies and our brains. We may not be experiencing it on a conscious level, but does it affect us on an unconscious or subconscious level?

Have you ever been to a place that was so remote, that there were few or no radio waves? I have, and it seemed very quiet and restful in a way I had not experienced before. If I had not experienced that contrast, I would never have known about it. Such places are going to be increasingly hard to find in a wireless world.

No, I am not against radio waves or wireless devices. I enjoy them and think they are good things. I'm just asking, if perhaps it's possible that we are on the verge of overdoing, of over-indulging in a good thing, to the point where it's no longer such a good thing?

The rest of the article is about the growing use of wireless technology, and the changes that are coming. Whether we want them or not.

I know people have made these same arguments about other kinds of technology, like electricity and automobiles, etc. They all changed the way we live, and to some degree changed us. Most would argue that the changes have been mostly positive. We adapted, and struck a balance, to insure that the changes were positive. I suppose we will do the same with the wireless revolution. It's just that the idea of wireless everywhere, all the time, 24/7, seems so darn invasive. It will be yet another balancing act we will have to manage in our coming Brave New World.


Also see:

Bi-sacksual struggles with social networking
     

Is everything becoming a game? Literally?

Why games will take over our lives

(CNN) -- If you think an electric toothbrush is high-tech, wait until you hear about the Internet-enabled version.

Jesse Schell, a game designer and Carnegie Mellon University professor, says toothbrushes will be hooked-up with Wi-Fi Internet connections within five years.

The point? If the entire Internet knows how often you brush your teeth and for how long, there's an incentive to brush more often.

Toothbrush makers could offer rewards for frequent brushers, too. Say you brush your teeth twice each day for three months. A company like Crest or Procter & Gamble could reward you with coupons for more toothbrushes, since your well-used bristles would probably be frayed by then.

Schell says dental hygiene -- and, really, just about everything else -- will become a game. He thinks the "gamepocalypse," the moment when everything in our lives becomes a game, is coming soon -- if it's not already here.

The Web-connected toothbrush is just one example Schell touched on during a recent interview. Here's an edited transcript:

CNN: You've said games are showing up all over the place. What do you mean by that, exactly?

In short, we already see games creeping into our everyday lives in all kinds of funny ways. You go to Starbucks, and you get points if you have a Starbucks card. And, in fact, they have a whole leveling system. The more times you visit, the more you move from level green up to gold level, with special privileges and free soy milk.

Already, we have this whole system of economies floating around out there. And at the same time, we have all these technologies showing up that are allowing us to track new things, things that we couldn't do before.

CNN: What are we tracking now that we couldn't before?

A new example that's kind of a popular one is this new game Foursquare, which is a game that works off of the GPS in your phone.

We normally think, 'Oh, the GPS in my phone is useful in case I need to get directions to somewhere.' But there's no reason that your GPS can't track your location all the time. And, in fact, why not make a game of it?

So in the world of Foursquare, you get territory points based on all the places you visit. If you are the person who visits a place more than anyone else, you can become the mayor of that place, unless someone else visits it more than you, and then they take over the mayorship of the place.

New video gaming systems are coming out that track every joint of your body. It's basically going to become a normal thing for us to allow Microsoft to put a three-dimensional camera on top of your television set looking at you, which sounds like a Big Brother scenario if ever I heard one, but, still, it's what we're going to allow.

CNN: Do you think this will go so far that we'll be living a game?

I think people will find a great deal of their lives co-opted by games, sort of like how we saw advertising co-opt huge amounts of our lives in the 20th century.

CNN: Has it already happened?

I jokingly call this convergence of games into reality the "Gamepocalypse": the moment when every moment of life is actually a game. So many people have been interested in the topic that I made a blog called Gamepocalypse Now.

Do you know about this Green Goose product that you snap onto your bicycle and it tracks how much you ride ... and it has a system of rewards based on how much gas you save?

There's a lot of these things that are starting to happen now, and I think we're going to see more and more of them coming together.

CNN: What's going to happen next?

I think camera-based technology and tracking is going to be [...]

Read the whole thing, for a glimpse of the Brave New World we are heading for. Ready or not, here it comes!

I can't help but think that our political situation has gotten so precarious, because too many people are so distracted by too many games/distractions, that they aren't giving enough attention to understanding things that really matter.

Will Western Civilization one day have a tomb stone that reads, "Death by Gaming"?
     

Iran and the internet: The Mouse That Roared

Not only roar, but "twitter" too! Iran's tech-savy youth have taken full advantage of the internet to organize and communicate during this uprising of protest.

Iran's Twitter Revolution

Forget CNN or any of the major American "news" networks. If you want to get the latest on the opposition protests in Iran, you should be reading blogs, watching YouTube or following Twitter updates from Tehran, minute-by-minute. [...]

If you read the whole thing, it has a link to a list of Iranian bloggers who are on the scene and reporting in.

Pat told me over dinner that Twitter was supposed to shut down to do some maintenance to their servers, but they postponed that because the Iranians are relying on the service so heavily right now.

When Twitter first became available, I didn't think much of it. "What's it FOR? Of what practical use is it?" I thought. Well, I guess I have my answer now.



EDITORIAL: Iran's Twitter revolution

[...] Tehran's authoritarian leaders clearly were caught off-guard. They had managed to take down the telephone system opposition supporters used for texting but for some reason were slow to eliminate other social media. As open defiance of the election results broke out, citizen journalists used new media to spread the word. And the whole Web was watching.

Iran is a highly computer-literate society with a large number of bloggers and hackers. The hackers in particular were active in helping keep channels open as the regime blocked them, and they spread the word about functioning proxy portals. Hackers also reportedly took down Mr. Ahmadinejad's Web site in an act of cyberdisobedience.

The immediacy of the reports was gripping. Well-developed Twitter lists showed a constant stream of situation updates and links to photos and videos, all of which painted a portrait of the developing turmoil. Digital photos and videos proliferated and were picked up and reported in countless external sources safe from the regime's Net crackdown. Eventually the regime started taking down these sources, and the e-dissidents shifted to e-mail. The only way to completely block the flow of Internet information would have been to take the entire country offline, a move the regime apparently has resisted thus far.

There seems to be no shortage of video cameras in Iran. The footage that has emerged is raw, unedited and dramatic. [...]

The videos are dramatic, and plentiful. This is a real 21st century uprising. Perhaps evolving into a revolution? We shall see.
     

Search Engine Evolution; What's coming next?

Are search engines becoming more "intelligent"? See for yourself:

New search engines aspire to supplement Google

(CNN) -- We may be coming upon a new era for the Internet search.

And, despite what you may think, Google is not the only player.

New search engines that are popping up across the Web strive to make searches faster, smarter, more personal and more visually interesting.

Some sites, like Twine and hakia, will try to personalize searches, separating out results you would find interesting, based on your Web use. Others, like Searchme, offer iTunes-like interfaces that let users shuffle through photos and images instead of the standard list of hyperlinks. Kosmix bundles information by type -- from Twitter, from Facebook, from blogs, from the government -- to make it easier to consume.

Wolfram Alpha, set to launch Monday, is more of an enormous calculator than a search: It crunches data to come up with query answers that may not exist online until you search for them. And sites like Twitter are trying to capitalize on the warp-speed pace of online news today by offering real-time searches of online chatter -- something Google's computers have yet to replicate. [...]

The article goes on about how Google has come to dominate web searches, capturing nearly 64% of all web searches. The article details how some newer search services are competing by offering things that Google can't, with some interesting examples.

The much-talked about Wolfram Alpha, or Alpha for short, harnesses massive computing power to answer users' questions, even if they're never been answered on the Web before.

"It's not a new Google. It's not supposed to be. It's a new thing. It's very complementary, in a way, to what search engines do," said Theodore Gray, co-founder of Wolfram Research, which created Alpha.

People need to get away from the idea that every 3-inch-long search bar online acts just like Google and Yahoo!, he said.

If you ask Google a question, the search engine's computers scan the Web for matching search terms and come up with answers that make the most sense statistically. Alpha, by contrast, pulls information from existing data sets that have been approved by the site's math-minded staff. The site then computes an answer to your question.

An example will help this make sense.

Say you wanted to find out nutritional information for your favorite recipe. On Google, you would have to search each ingredient individually and then add the calories and fat grams together yourself. With Alpha, you can type in the full recipe and the site produces a completed graphic that looks like it came right off the side of a cereal box. Read about a CNN test of 'Alpha'

Some search sites are trying to get better at understanding what their users want. [...]

The article gives more examples, it's worth reading the whole thing. A fascinating glimpse into the near future. Kewl.
     

Human-computer interfacing (HCI) by 2020

While this is interesting, some of it sounds kinda creepy... mostly because a lot of it sounds so plausible:

Computing in 2020: erasing the boundary between human and PC

It's easy to view the computer interface as nearly static. Since the advent of mouse-driven, windowed interfaces over 20 years ago, much of human-computer interface (HCI) has gone the same route. But a proliferation of mobile devices is beginning to change that and, even if that weren't the case, important differences are developing in what information is available to computers, and how we access it. In March 2007, Microsoft Research invited 45 leading researchers to discuss where HCI would be in 2020; a report summarizing their conclusions has now been made available.

[...]

The report suggests that we're just entering the age of mobile computing, but, by 2020, we'll be in an era of ubiquitous computing. Instead of a few computers and devices, each user, by leveraging pervasive networking, will have access to thousands of computers, with various information and capabilities available through each.

With everything about a person being recorded, imaged, or twittered, and all of that information constantly available, the report claims that we're about to reach the end of the ephemeral. By having medical information, personal photos, and even minute-by-minute thoughts permanently stored online, people will voluntarily provide access to more information than government spies or advertising agencies could ever succeed in gathering. [...]

These are just a few excerpts, the article isn't very long, but it touches on a lot more, there's plenty of food for thought. There are some Borg-like ideas, and I'm reading it and thinking OMG, Brave New World, etc. Then the author concludes with a Brave New World comment, so I guess I wasn't too far off. If you read the full article, it has an embedded link to the referenced report. Yikes.


Related Link:     Coming soon: superfast internet
 
   

iPhone compared to other internet devices

Here is an interesting chart comparing the iPhone with 3 other devices (click on chart to see larger version):


The chart is posted by Casey at maisonbisson.com, and you can see his commentary and links about it here:

Apple iPhone vs. Internet Tablets

PC Magazine has an article comparing rival cellphones:

Comparing the iPhone Alternatives

The have a detailed chart comparing 5 rival phones.

You might also like to check out Forbes.com:

Nine iPhone Alternatives

At Forbes the link will take you to a commercial window first; don't click on it, just wait a moment and do nothing, and it will transfer you to the article. If you don't want to wait, there is a "skip welcome page" link at the top of the page.
     

Universal Internet Access for Everyone, and the Law of Unintended Consequences

We are rapidly moving towards an interconnected world, communication wise. Devices that access the internet continue to drop in price; projects like OLPC are pushing to give every child worldwide a loptop computer with wireless internet access.

A $200 laptop, the Asus Eee PC 701, is due out this fall.
One belief behind many such projects is, that people are poor because they are uneducated; access to the internet would be educational, and therefore would help end poverty worldwide.

I would agree that the internet CAN be a great educational resource, and could HELP; however, like any resource, it can be used wisely, or squandered.

For instance, here in America, many people have internet access, including the "poor" among us. I don't doubt that some use the internet to educate themselves, to get better jobs, to and improve the quality of their lives. Yet I'm also certain that many more use it to read gossip, watch porn, hook up for sex, and otherwise use it as entertainment and distraction from more meaningful pursuits. Still others use it in malicious ways, like stalking and criminal activities.

The internet by itself does not educate people or lead to a guaranteed reduction of poverty. Trailer Trash can use it and still stay Trailer Trash, even in an advanced industrial nation like the USA, which has abundant educational opportunities.

Used with direction, purpose and guidence, the internet can undeniably be a valuable educational tool. But what about the unintended consequences of making it accessible worldwide?

In prior posts about the OLPC project and other similar programs, I've read that the parents of kids involved in these programs will sometimes come to the school with the kids, and ask their children to look things up for them on the internet.

In one video about the OLPC Project, a school in Cambodia gave laptops to kids, and even let the kids bring the machines home to use. These villagers had no electricity or running water in their homes, but they had a laptop computer! At night, it was often literally the brightest thing in the house. And if their home was within wireless range of the school, they had internet access, too. Access to streaming video, music, everything. (You can see on-line the story, a 13 minute CBS video about this)

Remember in the TV series "Star Trek", the crew had an imperative called the "Prime Directive", which forbid them from interfering with the natural development of other cultures? It also forbid them from giving advanced technologies to people who had not yet developed those same technologies. The logic behind that was, that if you gave advanced technology to people who had not yet developed the wisdom and comprehension to use it properly, the results could be disastrous... or at least, there could be unforeseen negative consequences.

The XO computer for children by the OLPC Project.
So here you have these little Cambodian children, all excited about their computers. The first word they learn in English is "Google". They use all this kid-friendly software, they sing-along with the computer in English, etc. They and their families now have a portal to the rest of the technologically advanced world, via the world wide web. Is there something inherently wrong with this? No, not that we can see. It's just that their parents and grand parents and all who went before them did not have this. So in the long run, how is this going to affect and change their culture? What will the long term after effects be?

We don't really know, because nothing quite like the internet has happened before.

The internet is relatively new. Even in our own technologically advanced cultures, we are having kids being raised with the internet, which has never happened before. It's making changes that we are only beginning to see. And yet before we even fully appreciate what is happening to ourselves, we are extending it to others, to everyone.

I'm not saying I'm against it. I doubt that anyone could stop it even if they wanted to. I'm just asking, what might the unintended consequences be? And I'm asking that because, I doubt we are going to be prepared for them. Forewarned is forearmed.

In Part II of this post, I'll take a closer look at possible unintended consequences.

I'll end today's post with this simple example of the law of unintended consequences in motion: