Showing posts with label optimism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label optimism. Show all posts

Sunday, November 15, 2009

"Prosperity" Churches, and the Recession

Did Christianity Cause the Crash?
America’s mainstream religious denominations used to teach the faithful that they would be rewarded in the afterlife. But over the past generation, a different strain of Christian faith has proliferated—one that promises to make believers rich in the here and now. Known as the prosperity gospel, and claiming tens of millions of adherents, it fosters risk-taking and intense material optimism. It pumped air into the housing bubble. And one year into the worst downturn since the Depression, it's still going strong.
[...] America’s churches always reflect shifts in the broader culture, and Casa del Padre is no exception. The message that Jesus blesses believers with riches first showed up in the postwar years, at a time when Americans began to believe that greater comfort could be accessible to everyone, not just the landed class. But it really took off during the boom years of the 1990s, and has continued to spread ever since. This stitched-together, homegrown theology, known as the prosperity gospel, is not a clearly defined denomination, but a strain of belief that runs through the Pentecostal Church and a surprising number of mainstream evangelical churches, with varying degrees of intensity. In Garay’s church, God is the “Owner of All the Silver and Gold,” and with enough faith, any believer can access the inheritance. Money is not the dull stuff of hourly wages and bank-account statements, but a magical substance that comes as a gift from above. Even in these hard times, it is discouraged, in such churches, to fall into despair about the things you cannot afford. “Instead of saying ‘I’m poor,’ say ‘I’m rich,’” Garay’s wife, Hazael, told me one day. “The word of God will manifest itself in reality.”

Many explanations have been offered for the housing bubble and subsequent crash: interest rates were too low; regulation failed; rising real-estate prices induced a sort of temporary insanity in America’s middle class. But there is one explanation that speaks to a lasting and fundamental shift in American culture—a shift in the American conception of divine Providence and its relationship to wealth.

In his book Something for Nothing, Jackson Lears describes two starkly different manifestations of the American dream, each intertwined with religious faith. The traditional Protestant hero is a self-made man. He is disciplined and hardworking, and believes that his “success comes through careful cultivation of (implicitly Protestant) virtues in cooperation with a Providential plan.” The hero of the second American narrative is a kind of gambling man—a “speculative confidence man,” Lears calls him, who prefers “risky ventures in real estate,” and a more “fluid, mobile democracy.” The self-made man imagines a coherent universe where earthly rewards match merits. The confidence man lives in a culture of chance, with “grace as a kind of spiritual luck, a free gift from God.” The Gilded Age launched the myth of the self-made man, as the Rockefellers and other powerful men in the pews connected their wealth to their own virtue. In these boom-and-crash years, the more reckless alter ego dominates. In his book, Lears quotes a reverend named Jeffrey Black, who sounds remarkably like Garay: “The whole hope of a human being is that somehow, in spite of the things I’ve done wrong, there will be an episode when grace and fate shower down on me and an unearned blessing will come to me—that I’ll be the one.”

I had come to Charlottesville to learn more about this second strain of the American dream—one that’s been ascendant for a generation or more. I wanted to try to piece together the connection between the gospel and today’s economic reality, and to see whether “prosperity” could possibly still seem enticing, or even plausible, in this distinctly unprosperous moment. (Very much so, as it turns out.) Charlottesville may not be the heartland of the prosperity gospel, which is most prevalent in the Sun Belt—where many of the country’s foreclosure hot spots also lie. And Garay preaches an unusually pure version of the gospel. Still, the particulars of both Garay and his congregation are revealing.

Among Latinos the prosperity gospel has been spreading rapidly. In a recent Pew survey, 73 percent of all religious Latinos in the United States agreed with the statement: “God will grant financial success to all believers who have enough faith.” For a generation of poor and striving Latino immigrants, the gospel seems to offer a road map to affluence and modern living. Garay’s church is comprised mostly of first-generation immigrants. More than others I’ve visited, it echoes back a highly distilled, unself-conscious version of the current thinking on what it means to live the American dream.

One other thing makes Garay’s church a compelling case study. From 2001 to 2007, while he was building his church, Garay was also a loan officer at two different mortgage companies. He was hired explicitly to reach out to the city’s growing Latino community, and Latinos, as it happened, were disproportionately likely to take out the sort of risky loans that later led to so many foreclosures. To many of his parishioners, Garay was not just a spiritual adviser, but a financial one as well. [...]

I was skeptical about this article at first. The title alone seemed alarmist. But the article itself is more subtle, and fair. It deals with the "prosperity" churches in particular, and acknowledges the good these churches can do, as well as examining their more... "questionable" or contradictory teachings.

I'm not against prosperity teachings; you have to have a vision of something better in order to transcend whatever adversity you may be facing in life. But even optimism has to be tempered with a healthy dose of pessimism, as a "grounding" influence. Emotions, however fervently felt, need to be balanced with reason. This article points out well how those lines can be blurred sometimes.

I would not say Christians caused the Crash. That's way too simplistic. The crash was caused by too many bad home loans, in which some Christians may have been caught up in. I still hold the LENDERS responsible, AND the people in Congress who pushed to have those bad loans made, despite all the warnings at the time. And I also blame all the bail-outs of banks over the past decades, banks that should have been allowed to fail. Instead, the bail-outs just protected them from the consequences of their irresponsible actions, which in turn just encouraged them to be even more reckless, and to continue making risky loans.

Even now, bailed-out banks are continuing to make loans to people who aren't able to pay them back. Protected from consequences, the banks have learned nothing. Where is the accountability? Who is more irresponsible, the people who take the loans, or the banks that make them, and then expect the taxpayers to bail them out when the loans go bad? And what about the politicians who insist that banks must make high risk loans available?

     

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Time to make Lemonade, not Political Kool Aid

Pat's had some good posts at his blog the past week. Today he had these:

Party-poopers vs lemonade-makers

It has some excerpts from today's column by Jonah Goldberg, in which he responds to criticisms that Michelle Malkin made about his column yesterday that had an agreeable bi-partisan tone. Malkin claimed she would rather be a "crank" than agree with Goldberg. It's worth following the link to read Goldberg's comments and Pat's comments too, about "shrill permanently outraged conservatives". I left the following comment on the post:

Malkin most certainly is a crank, which is why I'll probably end up delinking her from my blog. She still makes some good arguments, but plenty of other conservatives do the same thing without the shrillness. Her commentary also seems to be increasingly petty.

How many conservatives are going to be suffering from Obama Derangement Syndrome for the next 4 to 8 years, beating the shrillness drum? If that's the way it's going to be, then maybe bringing back the fairness doctrine wouldn't be such a bad thing. Then at least, we may get some level-headed conservative commentary interjected into the mainstream media, aimed at ordinary folks who aren't particularly ideological.

I find the ideological shrillness of the right to be just as tiresome as the dopey knee-jerk emotionalism of the left.

It's time to make Lemonade, not Kool Aid. I'll be focusing my efforts regarding political posts on listening to and promoting what the adults are talking about. Kool Aid is for kids at best; at worst, it's for suicide cults.

For years I've heard conservatives joke about the Left drinking the political equivalent of arsenic-laced Kool Aid. It would be too ironic if the Right now starts doing the same, and can't see it.

For eight years, the Democrats were the "shrill" party, always against whatever the Republicans were doing, more than being "for" something positive.

Then came Obama. All the flowery speeches. You can say whatever you like about those speeches, but they were never shrill. But the criticism of his speeches often was.

I did a post a while back:

The Real Winner of the 2008 Election: Optimism

It went into detail about the optimism factors in elections, and even methods of measuring optimism in presidential campaigns, including the most recent one.

McCain tried hard to run an optimistic campaign, but the shrill segment of the party pushed him hard to be more negative, to attack more. He gave in to it periodically.

The final analysis for the 2008 election showed that Obama had a higher optimism factor in his campaign, and of course he won.

Too many people in the Republican party today are drinking the Kool Aid of shrillness. It didn't work well for the Democrats, and it won't be any better for us. Please folks, find a better political beverage. I recommend starting with the Lemonade. Sugar to taste as needed.


Related Links:

What W thinks about O

“To Don’t” List for the Right

No use crying over spilt milk
     

Friday, November 07, 2008

The Real Winner of the 2008 Election: Optimism

I wanted to do this post before the election, but time did not allow. But it's just as relevant now as before, with all the bickering going on as to why McCain lost the contest. Perhaps the better question is, why did Obama win?

Years ago I read a book called ""Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life" by Martin Seligman. Chapter 11 on the book, "Politics, Religion and Culture: A New Psychohistory" had a section that dealt with a study of the American Presidential elections, since 1900 up to 1988. Using a methodology to analyze speeches for optimistic/pessimistic content, they found patterns in that content and the resulting wins and losses. Out of 22 elections, 18 of them were won by the most optimistic candidate (the exceptions were believed to have mitigating factors, discussed in the book).

In 1988, the researchers decided to apply this methodology of speech analysis to see if they could predict an election based on the optimism content of the speeches.

Their predictions worked for the primaries in both parties, accurately predicting not only the winners but also the order of the follow up contenders.

It was reported on in the NY Times. Both parties got wind of this, and requested the data. It was shared with them, in the belief that they probably wouldn't take it seriously anyway. But surprisingly, Dukakis's acceptance speech at the DNC reflected a huge increase in optimism, and sent him soaring in the polls. It was rumored that Theodore Sorenson - the great speechwriter for John F. Kennedy - had been exhumed to draft it.

If Dukakis had kept the optimism up, it might have made a difference. But it seems his acceptance speech was not the real Dukakis. The rest of his speeches throughout the fall reverted back to his former style, which was not as optimistic as his opponent's. Analysis of the speeches showed that George Bush would win, and he did.

An analysis was done for this year's election as well. This article appeared Oct. 1st, and was written with about six weeks left to go till Nov. 4th:

Optimism Experts Handicap the Presidential Election With About Six Weeks Remaining Until Nov. 4
October 1, 2008

By: Office of University Communications

PHILADELPHIA –- With less than six weeks until the general election, a University of Pennsylvania study analyzing the relative optimism of the 2008 presidential and vice presidential candidates has found Barack Obama and John McCain to be equally optimistic and Sarah Palin slightly more optimistic than Joseph Biden.

Researchers have determined that the most optimistic candidates win more than 80 percent of presidential elections dating back to 1900. How optimism confers this electoral advantage is unclear, but Penn psychologists believe optimistic candidates inspire hope in the electorate and try harder, particularly when faced with a challenge.

The study, conducted by researchers from Penn’s Positive Psychology Center, analyzed speeches given at the Saddleback Forum on Faith and the candidates’ respective convention acceptance speeches to determine levels of optimism.

“Although our initial report suggests this election is too close to call, shifts in optimism and rhetoric over the next few weeks may very well predict which side emerges as the victor,” Stephen Schueller, lead analyst on the project and a doctoral candidate in the Department of Psychology at Penn, said.

As a group, the vice-presidential candidates are less optimistic than the presidential candidates, with Biden by far the most pessimistic of the four.

In addition, Republican candidates, according to the study, show a higher level of internality when explaining positive events and a lower level of internality when explaining negative events. Put simply, they accept credit for good events and blame others as the cause for negative outcomes.

While speeches analyzed for the study were scripted, more instances of impromptu speech — such as the debates — can provide additional material to look for shifts and changes in optimism as the election draws.

“With news of the national economic crisis, the upcoming weeks will provide further material to draw from because attributions about economic matters offer a rich source of data,” Andrew Rosenthal, project coordinator with the Positive Psychology Center, said. [...]

I was not able to find a follow up to this study. It seems that up to this point Obama and McCain were neck to neck on the optimism score. But with the financial crisis breaking just then, and the Republican Base pressuring McCain to attack Obama more forcefully, I can only wonder if either of those may have altered the optimism dynamics in Obama's favor? It would be interesting to see, if they publish the remainder of their analysis.


Related Links:

Why Obama was elected

authentichappiness.org