TheTchijevsky Index of Mass Human Excitability

Excitability, due to solar activity? I had previously posted about this last May. But with the recent increase in solar activity as we enter our Solar Maximum, I can't help but think of the Middle East. Compare what Tchijevsky said, and what is happening there now:

A. L. Tchijevsky’s Theory of Sunspot Activity and Human Activity

[...] That sunspot cycle activity increased and decreased in a cycle of approximately 11 years was established in the 1750s when astronomers began to make the first charts of the numbers of sunspots over time. During World War I, A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of Astronomy and Biological Physics who continued his studies at the war front, noticed that particularly severe battles regularly followed each solar flare during the sunspot peak period of 1916-17.

To test his hypothesis that sunspot cycle influenced human activity, Tchijevsky constructed an Index of Mass Human Excitability covering each year form 500 BC to 1922 AD. He then investigated the histories of 72 countries during that period, noting signs of human unrest such as wars, revolutions, riots, expeditions and migrations, plus the numbers of humans involved.

Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant events occurred during the 5 years of maximum sunspot activity. (Tchijevsky's merely noting that the 1917 Russian Revolution occurred during the height of the sunspot cycle earned him almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged Marxist dialectics.)

Tchijevsky divided the eleven year sunspot cycle into four social periods:

Period 1: (approximately 3 years, minimum sunspot activity). Peace, lack of unity among the masses, election of conservatives, autocratic, minority rule.

Period 2: (approx. 2 years, increasing sunspot activity). Increasing mass excitability, new leaders rise, new ideas and challenges to the elite.

Period 3: (Approximately 3 years, maximum sunspot activity). Maximum excitability, election of liberals or radicals, mass demonstrations, riots, revolutions, wars and resolution of most pressing demands.

Period 4: (Approximately 3 years, decreasing sunspot activity). Decrease in excitability, masses become apathetic, seek peace.

Tchijevsky did not believe solar disturbances caused discontent as much as they acted as detonators that set off the smoldering discontent of the masses--discontent often channeled into war by their rulers. Nor did he deny that even during minimum solar activity some people would rebel against intolerable conditions or that nations would seek advantage through war and conquest. Some have since noted that the number of sunspots during any period may not be as significant as whether there is a rapid increase in the numbers, triggering unexpected passions. [...]

In terms of solar activity, we are in a "period 3" now. Sunspot activity has been steadily increasing. Recently, we've had an X-class solar flare, with a coronal mass ejection. Does that count as a "sudden increase"?

Aurora borealis activity possible February 17-18, NOAA X-class solar flare

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the most energetic solar flare in four years occurred on February 15, 2011. This X2 class solar flare also produced a coronal mass ejection which will increase the likelihood of aurora borealis activity, also known as the northern lights, on the night of February 17/18.

The solar flare originated from Sunspot 1158. X class solar flares are the most energetic solar flares. Flares also have sub classifications represented by numbers from 1 to 9, with the larger numbers representing more energetic flares. This X2 flare is energetic but near the lower end of X class flares.

This flare also produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) which is likely to strike Earth on February 18 (UTC date). During a CME the Sun spews out charged particles which can interact with Earth's magnetic field to cause aurora. The most likely night to see aurora activity (northern or southern lights) from this solar flare is the night of February 17/18, but it is also possible on the night of February 16/17.

This illustration shows how Earth's magnetosphere deflects, for the
most part, a magnetic cloud of plasma from a coronal mass ejection.

At high latitudes, NOAA predicts a 45% chance of aurora causing geomagnetic activity and a 25% chance of a minor geomagnetic storm. At mid latitudes the probabilities are 35% and 20%. [...]

It goes on to predict continuing activity from this sunspot.

I know that scientifically, there is insufficient data to prove any connection with political unrest in the Middle East. But still, I think it's "interesting" none the less.

But even if one considers that people are affected by solar activity, is the affect necessarily a negative one? Other research has shown that the peaks of solar activity have also been times of great advancement in human endevors, such as the arts and sciences:

Sunspots and Human Behavior

[...] In another historical study Suitbert Ertel writes in his article “Synchronous Bursts of Activity in Independent Cultures; Evidence for Extraterrestrial Connections” that evidence has been reported suggesting a link between historical oscillations of scientific creativity and solar cyclic variation. Eddy’s discovery of abnormal secular periods of solar inactivity (Maunders minimum type) offered the opportunity to put the present hypothesis to a crucial test. Using time series of flourish years of creators in science, literature, and painting (A.D. 600-1800) It was found as expected:

1. Cultural flourish curves show marked discontinuities (bursts) after the onset of secular solar excursions synchronously in Europe and China;

2. during periods of extended solar excursions, bursts of creativity in painting, literature, and science succeeded one another with lags of about 10-15 years;

3. The reported regularities of cultural output are prominent throughout with eminent creators. They decrease with ordinary professionals. The hypothesized extraterrestrial connection of human culture has thus been strengthened.

The evidence seems to show that during the maxima of sunspot activity human behavior is stimulated. [...]

Could it be that, solar maximums don't stimulate people in ways that make them agitated, but rather, they stimulate human creativity, causing people to strive for improvement. But in places where that creativity is stifled and repressed, where their creative energy has no creative outlet, no chance of improvement, that energy would then be directed to removing obstacles to the manifestation of that creativity and improvement? It's an interesting idea.
     

Egypt's "Facebook" Revolution. Being hyjacked?

Perhaps not yet. And hopefully, not at all. But can the youth hang on to it?


Is it really the internet, things like Facebook, Twitter and Google, that sparked the revolution? And is it now being usurped by others? Many of the younger Egyptians seem to think so:

Freed young leader energizes Egyptian protests

CAIRO – A young leader of Egypt's anti-government protesters, newly released from detention, joined a massive crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square for the first time Tuesday and was greeted with cheers, whistling and thunderous applause when he declared: "We will not abandon our demand and that is the departure of the regime."

Many in the crowd said they were inspired by Wael Ghonim, the 30-year-old Google Inc. marketing manager who was a key organizer of the online campaign that sparked the first protest on Jan. 25 to demand the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Straight from his release from 12 days of detention, Ghonim gave an emotionally charged television interview Monday night where he sobbed over those who have been killed in two weeks of clashes.

He arrived in the square when it was packed shoulder-to-shoulder, a crowd comparable in size to the biggest demonstration so far that drew a quarter-million people. He spoke softly and briefly to the huge crowd from a stage and began by offering his condolences to the families of those killed.

"I'm not a hero but those who were martyred are the heroes," he said, breaking into a chant of "Mubarak leave, leave." When he finished, the crowd erupted in cheering, whistling and deafening applause.

Ghonim has emerged as a rallying point for protesters, who reject a group of traditional Egyptian opposition groups that have met with the government amid the most sweeping concessions the regime has made in its three decades in power.

Protesters have lacked a clear, representative voice and many worry the traditional parties are trying to hijack the uprising, which began when activists used the Internet to mobilize protester. The mostly youthful protesters are insisting that no concessions will do unless Mubarak steps down.

In his first television interview Monday night, Ghonim dubbed the protests "the revolution of the youth of the Internet" and proclaimed defiantly: "We are not traitors."

About 130,000 people have joined a Facebook group nominating Ghonim as the spokesman of their uprising. The page is called "I delegate Wael Ghonim to speak in the name of Egypt's revolutionaries." [...]

Not only is this story not over yet, it's clearly just beginning. Where it's going, I don't think anyone knows for sure. The Facebook youth may have opened the door, but is it creating the "void" that Hillary Clinton warned about, where whoever has the most brute force on the ground can rush in and seize power? Can that be prevented?

And while the internet certainly is playing a role, I believe the actual spark has more to do with economics:

The Economic Roots Of the Revolt
Few countries have been less integrated into the global economy than Egypt.

The mass movement engulfing Egypt exposes a fact that has been hiding in plain sight: In a decade during which China has brought more people out of poverty at a faster rate than ever in human history, in a period of time where economic reform has been sweeping the world from Brazil to Indonesia, Egypt has missed out.

A decade ago, IBM ran a series of commercials featuring its global reach. One included a fisherman sailing on the Nile, tapping into a wireless network. It was an enticing image—and almost completely fictional. Few countries have been less integrated into the global economy.

The country ranks 137 in the world in per-capita income (just behind Tonga and ahead of Kirbati), with a population in the top 20. And while GDP growth for the past few years has been respectable, averaging 4%-5% save for 2009 (when all countries suffered), even that is at best middle of the pack in a period where the more competitive dynamic nations have been surging ahead.

Egypt has long been famous for crony inefficiency. Yet Hosni Mubarak was graced with nearly $2 billion in annual U.S. aid, another $5 billion from dues from the Suez Canal, and $10 billion in tourism, so he could buy off a considerable portion of the 80 million Egyptians. [...]

It goes on into a lot of detail. While some of the problems are unique to Egypt, others are endemic to the region.

Many countries of the Middle East are borrowing money to keep food prices down, instead of creating jobs. Like the Western nations, they are also accumulating massive debts. It's an unsustainable situation. Where is it going to lead to?


Also see: Tahrir photos

     

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” - George Orwell

I found the above quote in this long, rambling post by Takuan Seiyo at the Brussels Journal:

From Meccania To Atlantis - Part 16: Exodus 1: Reality for Radicals

[...] Insane governments have turned a crisis of imprudent banking into a crisis of imprudent sovereign debt. To cure a disease of debt they have issued more debt. To address a fundamental crisis of insolvency, they are pumping the stock Keynesian emetic as though this were a crisis of liquidity. Like Michael Crichton’s environmentalists (1), destroying Nature they arrogantly wanted to manage, pedigreed economists at the helm of the West’s fiscal and monetary destiny have engaged in ignorant, incompetent, and disastrously intrusive intervention that will be followed by attempts to repair the intervention, followed by attempts to repair the damage caused by the repair.

One after another, fiat currencies are catching fire, as all paper promises by lying governments must. Flight into the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds buys the debt paper of the biggest Greece of them all. Stocks have crashed. If money printing brings them up again it won’t last, for consumer demand itself has cratered. Flight into gold leads into a blind alley foreclosed by the evil vampire squids either through naked shorts that suppress the price as a favor to Leviathan or through fictional fractional business that allows them to sell 100 bars of paper gold against each one they own.

Naked shorting, i.e. selling commodities you neither own nor borrowed is simply a con job akin to selling the Brooklyn Bridge or Eiffel Tower. That such an institutionalized swindle is allowed attests to the fundamental disconnect from Reality and moral bankruptcy not merely of the greedy Crooks but of the governments that have abandoned their few needed and legitimate functions, salient among which is being the honest cop in the bustling marketplace.

Instead, governments are busy pulling off their own mega-swindles, such as promising too many costly entitlements to too many people and misspending enormous funds on social engineering at home and stupid pet causes abroad. Those funds are raised through confiscation from legitimate citizens via onerous taxation, borrowing in international Ponzi schemes, and diluting the currency through “quantitative easing.” The latter forfeits the government’s second needed function: to preserve the value of the currency it issues.

Throughout the West, Karl Marx is smiling even as gangster financial manipulators loot the world with impunity. It’s from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

In the U.S., the government has coerced banks to grant mortgages to millions of favored minorities, irrespective of prospects of repayment. When, inevitably, the mortgages went sour and the banks crashed, the government transferred all that fictional finance onto its own books underwritten by the taxpayers’ money. In Europe, the Northern people who work, produce and save have been forced out of their sound currencies to enable their Body Snatcher (2) elites to subsidize via the common euro the Southern people who play, consume and borrow. When the inevitable happened, the Eurocrats are transferring further trillions from the Northerners, to bail out the Southerners.

As each level of fiction collapses before the onslaught of offended Reality, many more levels of lies remain. The massive foundation of social, economic, cultural, biological, political and geopolitical illusions on which the modern Western state perches as though on a layer of sweet and airy meringue is already so pitted and fissured that all but diehard Snatchers perceive it. Alas, frank public debate of the underlying phantom crossbars is proscribed by Snatcher laws and speech codes. Moreover, the majority of the population is hostile to such debate, for it’s guy-wired by Pod mental chipsets implanted by the state’s compulsory education and remotely controlled by all other major social institutions nonstop for the last 45 years.

Unlike in the financial area, social and martial crashes are still avoidable in theory, but will not be avoided because the ruling elites refuse to discern their true causes and the majorities that vote them in are too far-gone to change that. In the decohered Inverse Reality foisted on the West by its ruling class, nothing can make sense or is ever predictable. It’s all a series of random events while we, free of the burden of facts and their patterns, can proceed gloriously toward a vision of ever more perfect Justice, Equality and Peace.

[...]

To discuss Reality, one does not have to deploy polysyllabic words with Greek and Latin endings. A PhD dissertation written in German is not needed. Reality is what is. We have known for a hundred thousand years what is.

Repeat empirical evidence of Reality is programmed into our genes; for instance the “flight or fight” response. Your body will rarely make the error of trying to wrestle down a grizzly bear, yet your postmodern nation is committed to spawning horrific grizzly bears forever and forcing you at the point of the government’s gun to wrestle them every day of your life.

Reality is also encoded in our cultural legacy. Consider Genesis 3:15, God’s curse on the serpent: “I will put enmities between thee and the woman, and thy seed and her seed: she shall crush thy head, and thou shalt lie in vain for her heel.” I call it time-tested advice for survival, if needing some caveats for various garter and black (e.g. Coluber constrictor) snakes. But modern-day Loons would call it prejudice, racial profiling and hate speech. And Gnostic Loons who hold the levers of power will deliberately force you to venture barefoot among the vipers, to cure you of your prejudices.

Reality does not need a battery of sociologists to tabulate and ameliorate it. Hear the Welsh priest George Herbert, who counseled in his 1651 Jacula Prudentium, "He that lies with the dogs riseth with fleas." How do the liaisons of your country with the rogue nations of the Third World look in light of this apothegm? Or consider what Benjamin Franklin wrote in Poor Richard's Almanack sometime in the 1740s: "Nine men in ten are suicides." How does the theory and practice of the neo-socialist “social justice” redistributive state look in light of this six-word crystallization of Reality?

[...]

Reality Renaissance

The title of this Part, “Reality for Radicals,” is a play on the title of the book Rules for Radicals – the clever manifesto by Saul Alinsky at whose virtual feet sat the leaders of the ruling elite, starting with the Community Organizer in Chief, B. H. Obama, America’s Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and probably the entire nomenklatura of Socialist International.

Nevertheless, this opinion channel, this writer and these readers are no Radicals. They are Regulars. On the major issues of life and society they stand roughly in the same zone where stood the Greatest Generation -- their Nazi-smashing grandparents. It’s just that the Snatchers have snatched the goal posts too, and moved them to the far left corner of the field.

The Regulars are radical only in the sense that George Orwell prophesied when he wrote in 1984: “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” [...]

And telling the truth is what we must do. Someone's gotta do it. What's the alternative? We can see where the lies are taking us. It's not sustainable. Reality will only continue to be offended for just so long, before it strikes back.


Also see:

This is not a Depression or a Recession

Modern Gnosticism's disregard for reality

The wind caused by the slamming shut of one door often opens another door
     

Iranian Regime crushes all dissent. Relentlessly.

Attacks, arrests slowing online news from Iran

(CNN) -- Bloody attacks and midnight arrests, combined with a regime growing more technologically savvy, have begun stemming the flow of online information from dissidents in Iran, activists and human rights officials say.

Access to some social networking sites has been blocked in Iran since the June 12 election

Once emboldened by their ability to dodge the government and spread news about their protests to the world, many in the youth-driven protest movement, they say, are now scared of the consequences of getting caught.

"It's absolutely chilling," said Drewery Dyke, a member of human rights group Amnesty International's Iran team. "The level of fear that has permeated society now, in terms of this issue, is palpable. It's striking.

"There's an absolute hunkering down by the people."

[...]

At first, members of the movement bragged about being able to skirt the Iranian firewall and share their message -- including pictures and videos that showed the scope of their protests and documented government and pro-government violence that helped galvanize international support for their cause.

Now, some say, the government is catching up.

"It's begun to tail off, but not because people aren't taking the video," Nelson said. "There's just no way to get it out.

"Even the really savvy ones, they're having a hard time getting around things just because everything that they've been using is getting blocked quickly."

At least as effective as the online fight has been the violent, real-world targeting of dissidents using the Internet.

Iranian bloggers have been arrested and others beaten by loyalist Basij militia members, Dyke said.

Some formerly reliable sources in Iran now refuse to speak freely on the telephone or ask Amnesty International staffers to stop calling them, Dyke said.

"It hits you in the face; it's extremely frustrating," he said. "They appear to have drawn up the bridges -- hopefully those bridges will come back down soon."

Roya Hakakian, an Iranian-American author and journalist who has stayed in contact with friends and others in Iran, said she heard about one woman being stormed by pro-government militia members for merely stepping out of her car and using her cell phone during a traffic jam near a protest.

Hakakian said she fears not just the clampdown on information now but what may come next.

"Why are they so insistent on making sure there is no communication?" she said, comparing the move to when a fundamentalist government fresh off its overthrow of the Shah of Iran went on a brutal campaign to silence its critics.

"They want to go back to what they have done in the early '80s -- do away with a large number of the opposition that refuses to be converted and refuses to give in." [...]

It is like the '80's. After the overthrow of the Shah, by a coalition of groups working together, the Clerics turned against their fellow coalition members and with brute force crushed them into submission. They are now attempting to do this again, to the reformists among them. They wish to eliminate any semblance of democracy and have a completely theocratic state, a dictatorship run by unelected clerics.

The article goes on to speculate that the quiet from Iran now is not just due only to the crackdown by the government. The political opposition was set up as a political campaign, not a revolutionary movement. But as the government continues to crush that campaign, they may well be turning it into a revolutionary movement. Which is why the Iranian government is moving quickly to terrorize and kill as many of them as possible, just as they did 30 years ago.

Meanwhile, the Theocratic regime also is doing everything it can to put the blame on outside influences:

Report: UK embassy staff in Iran 'face trial'

It's what every fascist regime does. Create a circus, and hope nobody notices what they are really doing? Who are they fooling?


Related Link:

Iranian cleric's "sermon" urges "strong cruelty"
     

Iranian Uprising Continues. Where is the MSM?

The crowds are huge:


And loud:


Iranian Uprising Underway United States MSM Ignores and Obama Silent

That was from yesterday. Perhaps today we will see a bit more from the MSM? We could hope. I know they don't have direct access, but with all the information coming out of Iran through the internet, and spreading through the blogger sphere, surely the MSM could be reporting more than they are?

In fairness to President Obama, he IS in a tricky position. If he sides with Moussavi against Amadinejad, the Iranian government could declare Moussavi to be a foreign agent and use that as an excuse to crush him. I understand that Obama has to balance his statements carefully, but I do wish he would speak more about the will of the Iranian people. And isn't there more we CAN do? For instance, there was this on Andrew Sullivan's blog:

A Yahoo Message From Iran

[...] The only radio talking about protest 24 hours a day is Radio Farda, but we cant hear it good. I can hear it by satellite, but by radio it is so weak. [They are jamming it.] They are collecting satellite dishes. The US should add a transmitter in Iraq. Radio Farda's only transmitter is in Dubai, so they need to add new one in Iraq.

It's an excellent idea. Is freedom of information not something our current Democrat Administration can support? How about a transmitter, Mr. President?

Andrew Sullivan, who I don't agree with about many things, none the less has excellent coverage of events in Iran. See his blog at Atlantic Monthly for lots of videos, photos and links.

And of course, Iranian ex-pat blogger Azarmehr also has extensive coverage:

For a democratic secular Iran

Be warned, some of the images there are quite shocking and graphic. People are literally dying in this struggle.
     

The Young Iranian's are Fighting Back...

The students actually capture this policeman. Follow the links for many more dramatic photos and commentary. I got the photo's from here:

Its Time to Fight Back

This is Street Justice!

The above links are from the blog of an Iranian expatriate, Azarmehr. I will be checking his blog for updates, the link to the main page of his blog is here:

For a democratic secular Iran. For peace and prosperity in the Middle East.

I expect the Iranian Theocracy is going to crack down on this rebellion and try to squash it, the same way the Chinese crushed the Tiananmen Square rebellion.

I wouldn't feel too sorry for the captured policeman in the photos. Look at what the police goons did to students in June of 2007:

The can's this guy is being forced to suck on are used in toilets. His crime? Wearing Western style hair and clothes.

Note the Iranian News logo on the photos. The government wanted these photos to be seen in the local press, to intimidate the populace.



And remember the Iranian Police publicly bludgeoning women:







All of this, with high unemployment, a rampant illegal drug problem, a housing shortage, shortages of gas and essential goods, and the much talked about marriage crisis in Iran. Is it any wonder the current Iranian government has a rebellion on their hands? There is a large majority of youth in Iran (35% of the population) with no future prospects. No matter how hard the government cracks down, the demographics are working against them. Their economic problems are so severe they make our own look like nothing. They keep hanging more and more people just to silence the dissent.

I fear this is why they are working so hard to quickly acquire nuclear weapons; they have not the means to solve their internal problems and retain power, so they need nuclear weapons so they can acquire other resources from their neighbors, by force. (See "Iran's pressing needs and Iraq's vulnerability")

The great irony in all this is that the current Iranian Theocracy was swept to power in a student revolution. Now students are revolting against them. Will these students have any help from the West?


Related Links:

Ahmadinejad brushes off Iran election violence

The Power Behind Ahmadinejad's Disputed Win: Ayatullah Khamenei

Reformist Azeri Couple Challenge Iran's Amadinejad in Upcoming June Elections