Back to reality... where to from here?

The Editors of National Review Online have published an editorial, I'm going to repeat the whole thing here, because it's short:

The Comeback . . . Adult

Mitt Romney is a smart and talented man who has run a vigorous campaign based mostly on conservative issues. He vows to keep fighting all the way to the convention. But he took third place in several Southern states on Super Tuesday, a dismal showing for someone attempting to rally conservatives. He has our support. But it is now up to him to identify a plausible path to the nomination.

Sen. John McCain’s amazing comeback is a testament to the power of perseverance, conviction, and luck. It has been good to see his strength on Iraq rewarded. For the Republican nomination to be worth his having, however, he needs to consolidate his support on the Right — ideally, before the fall.

Doing that will require ignoring some of the spin coming from his allies on immigration. They say that McCain’s victories prove that opposition to amnesty is a losing issue. Actually, the anti-amnesty candidates — including Mike Huckabee, who has been running as a deportationist — have gotten majorities in most states. Even in Florida, where strong Hispanic support gave McCain a decisive win, the anti-amnesty candidates got nearly half the vote. McCain’s success proves that Republican politicians can survive supporting amnesty if they have compensating strengths. It does not prove that the issue helped him. As Ramesh Ponnuru writes in the upcoming issue of National Review, conservatives cannot reasonably ask McCain to abandon his convictions on immigration. But they can ask him to say that he will defer any action on amnesty, or guest workers, until a few years after enforcement has been put into effect.

Immigration reform is the policy issue that gives conservatives the most concern about McCain. But they worry as much about his priorities as his policies, so he will not be able to win their support merely by listing all of the topics on which he agrees with them. Aside from his opposition to pork-barrel spending, there is no domestic conservative cause that McCain has taken up. We believe that a President McCain would prefer to appoint conservative judges, for example. But would he fight for them or cut a deal with Pat Leahy? That is the fear that underlies the complaints about McCain’s membership in the Gang of 14.

He has not always taken the lead even on national-security issues. Republicans in Washington want to extend and reform an intelligence-collection law, but Democrats are balking, threatening an interruption in operations. McCain’s voice would be helpful here, if he chose to use it.

McCain can win over most conservatives, but their support is not his by right. They will rally to him if he demonstrates that he believes that a broad range of conservative policies are among the things that are, to quote the title of one of his books, worth the fighting for.

The calm voice of the editors of NRO, helping us keep our eye on ball and focused on where it is in the bigger picture. Thank You NRO.


From Jim Geraghty at NRO's The Campaign Spot:
Hugh: Put Humpty Dumpty Together Before St. Paul

[...] Hugh is a party man, and a conservative, and a guy who keeps his eye on the long term. (Like him, I never buy into arguments that you win later by losing now.) [...]

Whatever our disappointments presently, let's keep our eye on the long term. That means using with whatever we have now, and making it work.


I think it's safe now to say the Reagan Coalition is dead. If you MUST have a post-mortem, try this one:
Religion and the death rattle of the GOP?

[...] So the South thinks it voted for a real conservative by voting for the Huckster? As I've said many times before, scratch a southern Republican, and you'll find a big-government Dixiecrat which is what Huckabee is. The Goldwater/Reagan conversion of Dixiecrats to Republican was skin deep.

What has amazed me is the depth of anti-Mormonism in evangelicals (not all - I know many who are practical and sensible when it comes to politics.) I find this completely illogical given that all religion is personal and subjective but then I'm not a domineering, authoritarian, dogmatic control freak as some religionists seem to be.

As for California: this is the first time that they have had a say in the primaries. In the 25 years that I lived there, it was all over by the time we voted in May and many people didn't even bother to vote. So far it looks like McCain is ahead with 44% (still not the magical 51%) but we won't know till tomorrow for sure. If I were Mitt, I'd concede now and not spend another dime of my own money on ungrateful and self-centered Republicans.

I've said before I'll settle for McCain. He could win against the Clintons but maybe not against the feel-good Obamania sweeping the country. Maybe the blundits are right and Americans are sick of Republicans and their endless pontificating and moralizing. [...]

The Reagan Coalition may have worked in it's time, but that was then, this is now. Now we have to form a new Coalition if we can. That coalition will consist of the willing. I'm willing, are you?
     

The Romney Surge is Beginning...

At least I think so. Romney is gaining support, and isn't giving up:

Romney Expects to Fight on Past Tuesday

Despite John McCain's building political momentum, Mitt Romney said Saturday he does not expect the Republican presidential nomination to be settled during the coming week and he is planning to continue campaigning beyond Super Tuesday.

The former Massachusetts governor said the number of states up for grabs, his prospects of succeeding in some of the 20-plus GOP contests that day, as well as a growing concern within the Republican Party about conferring the nomination on McCain give him reason to fight on.

[...]

During a news conference late in Minneapolis, Romney celebrated a caucus victory Saturday in Maine, noting that it came despite McCain's backing by the two U.S. senators in Maine, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

"This is a people's victory," Romney said. "It is, in my view, also an indication that conservative change is something that the American people want to see. I think you're going to see a growing movement across this country to get behind my candidacy and to propel this candidacy forward. I think it's a harbinger of what you're going to see on Tuesday."

[...]

Romney also said his campaign has seen an uptick in donations - $345,000 in one day last week versus a typical daily take of $50,000 - as the race has crystallized into a two-man contest between him and McCain.

Two other candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, have lagged in national public opinion surveys and the GOP delegate count.

"I think one of the dynamics that changed is that conservative Republican and mainstream Republicans, all over the country, in the last 48 hours or so, have concentrated on the prospect of Senator McCain being our nominee and are saying, 'That's not the direction we want to go,'" Romney said. [...]

Good! If Super Tuesday doesn't decide it, he will keep going and may yet make it to the White House, as splintered parts of the Republican party now unite to rally around him.

Win Mitt Win!!!

Related Link: Good News For The Romney Camp?
     

Vote for Mitt Romney, stop McCain/Huckabee

Romney aims for a split in California

DENVER - Republican Mitt Romney is conceding the bulk of the Northeast to rival John McCain, counting instead on his home state of Massachusetts, a split in California and wins in a series of caucus states to extend his presidential campaign beyond Super Tuesday.

[...]

If he fails to capture enough delegates to offset McCain's likely wins in other states and strong showing in California, where the Arizona senator has the backing of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Romney could end his campaign in Boston on Wednesday.

During a news conference Friday outside a Ford dealership here, he passed up three opportunities to declare he would carry on if he fails to surpass McCain in the Super Tuesday voting.

"I really thought it would all be over, you know, early in January, and now we're going to go into February, and I just can't predict what will happen in February," he said, "so we'll see what happens."

This week the multimillionaire former venture capitalist authorized only a modest $3 million advertising buy, after committing $35 million of his own money last year in an effort to lock up the nomination early with back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

While Romney won in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada, McCain beat him in major head-to-head battles in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Huckabee prevailed in the leadoff Iowa caucuses. He has vowed to remain in the race, taking critical conservative support from Romney.

Currently, Romney trails McCain in delegates to the Republican National Convention, 83-59. A total of 1,191 are needed for the nomination.

Simple mathematics highlight the challenge confronting Romney. [...]

Read the entire article for all the details. I don't like the sound of this at all. Huckabee may take just enough votes away from Mitt to sink him. Where is Huckabee getting his money to continue on? He can't win, but can only drag Romney down.

The Mack and Huck Show

[...] Where is Tonya Harding when you need her? Huckabee should have been kneecapped back before South Carolina. He has no money to run ads in the 23 Tuesday states but just having his name on the ballot is going to steal votes from Mitt. If I were a conspiracy-minded person, I would say that Mack and Huck have done a private dirty deal to take votes away from Mitt.

That leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If Mack picks Huck for VP, then it pretty much confirms my suspicions and I could not, in good conscience, bring myself to vote for them. I'd rather see them both in hell than in the White House. [...]

This is all like a nightmare to me. I won't get to vote until April, and if the MSM is right, it could all be decided on Feb. 5th. It stinks.

Tonya, where ARE you?
     

John McCain: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

If you try to look at McCain as the presidential candidate, from an objective viewpoint, what might you see? Pat's done that from two different articles he's taken excerpts from, to give us a peek at the Good, the Bad and the Ugly we might see from a McCain Presidency:

More lemonade out of lemons

[...] Reading this made me realize what my basic problem with McCain is: he's a neoconservative not a traditional conservative. He believes that citizens are subservient to the state; that we are all duty-bound to toil in the cause of "National Greatness." In other words: he believes that government is the solution not the problem and has not understood the anti-statist, individualistic core principles of the American Revolution. If McCain were omnipotent, he would soon have us all in uniforms marching to his ideas of "National Greatness."

Fortunately that can't happen in the US and the worst that can happen under President McCain is that he will compromise too much with the left because of his belief in government-led social engineering.

I will continue to fight for Mitt (who, unlike McCain, has grasped the core principles of American individualism and does not see us citizens as potential drones in a "National Greatness" beehive.) But whoever the nominee is, I will back the winner. [...]

Read the whole thing for the Good, Bad and Ugly excerpts which he is commenting on, and more.

It's too early in the primaries to say if John McCain is the new face of the Republican party. We have to hear from more states, which we will on Super Tuesday.

The Reagan Coalition, in whatever form it still exists, may have been splintered between the many candidates. Now that the field has narrowed, they may rally around Romney to appose McCain. But that's not a sure thing.

What about states southern states like South Carolina, where some people say more liberal north-easterners have been moving in and dominating the local GOP chapters, outnumbering the more conservative local Republicans? Are there enough Reagan conservatives left to carry these states for the Coalition, or will they support John McCain?

We shall see on Super Tuesday, which way the wind is blowing.
     

The state of the Reagan Coalition, as it is today

I've done two other posts, linking to articles that question whether the Reagan Coalition is as influential as it once was, or if it's even still the Republican base.

I think the questions are important. But to be clear, I'm not saying the Reagan Coalition is DEAD. But if we end up with McCain as our candidate, then clearly something has changed or gone terribly wrong. The situation we find ourselves in could possibly be explained thus:

1.) The coalition may be smaller; it's eldest members have certainly passed on, as has President Reagan himself. Have many new members of like mind replaced them? If not, then the coalition would be smaller, and therefor less influential.

2.) A coalition needs a leader to unite them as one political force. The coalition has not rallied around any of the candidates. It has, in fact, been split.

A segment of evangelicals has gone for Huckabee. These folks were once Democrats, and like big government. They are reverting back to their roots, and Huckabee has split them away from the coalition.

Giuliani and McCain may have split away many of the National Security member's of the coalition. The Fiscal conservatives drafted Fred Thompson into the race, but he entered so late that many potential supporters had already committed themselves elsewhere; his campaign staff was too small and couldn't cope quickly enough to build the support he needed.

The coalition has been fractured and scattered; now we find ourselves looking at John McCain as the potential front runner. I say "potential" because the primaries are hardly over yet; the MSM may be pushing him as having already won, but that's typical of them, trying to create the news instead of reporting it.

The coalition, however fractured and reduced it may be, it's members, however scattered about they have been, still have a chance to regroup. I see that they have two choices left:

1.) Rally around and support Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday February 5th. He is really the only alternative to McCain right now. He may not be your ideal candidate, but in politics we often don't get our ideal; we get reality. We vote for the best person AVAILABLE, and we work to make the most of it.

2.) Vote for McCain, and take the consequences. You might get a few things you want... if he can even win. The MSM wants him to be nominated, because they know he's unpopular with the base. Once he gets the nomination, I have no doubt the MSM will turn on him, play up the aspects about him that Republican's hate, play that tape of him ranting like a lunatic about lettuce and lazy Americans... you get the idea?

If Mitt gets the Nomination, he will also be given a very hard time. Either way, it's going to be a tough battle. But I believe that Mitt Romney is the best candidate, not necessarily the perfect one, but the best one available. He has many fine qualities, and should be given serious consideration. The left absolutely despises him, for reasons that conservatives would love. Even conservative Democrats. Yes, remember, conservative Democrats were always a part of the Reagan coalition too.

Now that the many candidates that have distracted and splintered the coalition have been narrowed down, we have an opportunity to unite again. The coalition may have changed; times change, the players change, but certain conservative truths don't change, and that is what unites the coalition. So let's not sweat the details too much, and unite and pick the BEST candidate on Super Tuesday.

I feel that candidate is Mitt. If it turns out to be McCain, I'll deal with it if and when I must. But I live in Oregon; our primary won't be until April. Those of you who get to vote in Super Tuesday have a chance to reunite the coalition, in whatever shape it might be today. I hope you will. It's up to you.


Related Links:

Is Romney appealing to a conservative coalition that no longer controls the GOP?

Is the Reagan Coalition Gone? What's next?

The early primaries are the problem