Brexit: Could it break up the UK?

That is just one of many concerns:

Could the UK hold another Brexit vote?

London (CNN)The UK made a historic decision to leave the European Union on Thursday -- but has so far hesitated on pulling the trigger to go.

Now questions are being asked as to whether it has to happen. Here are the scenarios in the conversation. [...]

The whole article is worth reading, but this may be the most relevant point:

[...] In Scotland -- where 62% of voters cast a ballot to remain in the EU -- Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested the devolved Scottish Parliament could attempt to veto a Brexit.

She also said Scotland could pursue a second referendum on leaving the United Kingdom in the event of a Brexit. Scots voted by 55.3% to stay in the UK at an earlier referendum in 2014.

Similarly, in Northern Ireland, where 56% of voters want to remain in the EU, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness has called for a poll on a united Ireland.

Cameron said Monday that Scotland's Parliament did not have the legal power to veto the referendum result, a position backed by Mark Elliott, professor of public law at the University of Cambridge.

As Elliott explains in a blog post, this is because the UK Parliament in Westminster is sovereign, and has not given away any of its powers to devolved legislatures like those in Scotland or Northern Ireland.

But Jo Murkens, an associate professor of law at the London School of Economics, argues that while Scotland and Northern Ireland may lack the legal power to veto a Brexit, the threat of the breakup of the UK presented a "political and moral" veto.

It is incumbent on Westminster MPs -- who were not just there to "implement the view of the people," but to "exercise political judgment" -- to block the Brexit to prevent the fracturing of the kingdom, he told CNN.

"It's not 52 percent to 48 percent -- it's 2 to 2," said Murkens. "Two nations have voted to remain and two nations have voted to leave. And if the overriding objective is to keep the United Kingdom together and intact, then MPs have a duty to read this referendum result differently and say in order to preserve the UK we will not leave the EU."

Pro-Remain MPs outnumber Leave backers in the House of Commons by about 3 to 1.

Armstrong agreed that the sentiments in Scotland and Northern Ireland could play a major role in how Britain's political class navigates its way out of the crisis.

"Once that politics starts to play out a bit more, and it becomes clear that it's not just a case of the UK withdrawing from the European Union but the UK itself falling apart, that again may crystallize minds in terms of what the future looks like," he said. [...]

Read the whole thing for embedded links and video. It will be... interesting to see how this unfolds. I think that the powers that be will not be in a rush to break up the UK. How they will avoid it, is another question. I expect there will be a lot of negotiating and compromising attempted, but who can say where it will lead to? Time will tell.

     

The Irish Solution for Israel?

Maybe:

Applying lessons from Northern Ireland
Israel should push for the establishment of a semi-permanent peace conference involving moderate Arab countries and representatives of the Quartet.

[...] Two creative breakthroughs are needed: the first is to see moderate Arab states as true partners with a common interest in resolving the problem, and to break with the decades old Israeli doctrine that we should never meet the Arab world as a whole. This policy is based on the denial of historical reality: The Arab world as a whole needs to accept Israel's presence in the Middle East.

The Arabs should help us? Yes. Social psychology has shown time and again that the best way to create solidarity between feuding parties is to have them work on a common problem. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not just our problem: It is one of the whole Arab world, because it fuels Islamic fundamentalism and destabilizes the region. No Palestinian leader can opt for compromise without looking for the legitimacy bestowed by all Arabs.

The second breakthrough we need is to rethink Israel's phobia of participating in permanent conferences that allow a process to evolve. This is exactly the opposite of the situation of the Camp David summit in 2000, which was completely identified with Bill Clinton, who was in the last phase of his presidency. The frantic pressure of having to strike a deal before he left the White House, with no one in sight who would shepherd the process to an end, was a recipe for failure.

Instead we need to apply the model of the Northern Ireland process. In Alderdice's view the major factor that made success in that process possible was the participation of the British and Irish governments, as well as the support and involvement of the American government. All pledged to be there for as long as it took to reach an agreement.

Psychologically, it makes a huge difference to know that external support is there to stay. [...]

Some good stuff here. But where is the Palestinian's Nelson Mandela? That would help too.      

An Irish Story For St. Patrick's Day

Here is a bit of fun. I got this in my email:

A TRUE IRISH GHOST STORY

This happened a while ago in Belfast, and even though it sounds like an Alfred Hitchcock story, it's true.

John Bradford, a 20 yr old Queen's University student, was on the side of the road hitchhiking on a very dark night and in the midst of a storm. No cars were traveling that night. The storm was so strong he could hardly see a few feet ahead of him.

Suddenly, he saw a car slowly coming towards him and stop. John, desperate for shelter and without thinking about it, got into the car and closed the door.... only to realize there was nobody behind the wheel and the engine wasn't on!!

The car started moving slowly. John looked at the road ahead and saw a curve approaching. Scared, he started to pray, begging for his life.

Then, just before the car hit the curve, a hand appeared through the window and turned the wheel. John, paralyzed with terror, watched as the hand repeatedly came through the window, but never touched or harmed him.

Shortly thereafter John saw the lights of a pub appear down the road. So, gathering strength, he jumped out of the car and ran to the pub.

Wet and out of breath, he rushed inside and started telling everybody about the horrible experience he had just had.

A silence enveloped the pub when everybody realized he was crying and....wasn't drunk.

Suddenly the door opened and two other people walked in from the stormy night. They, like John, were also soaked and out of breath.

Looking around, and seeing John Bradford sobbing at the bar, one said to the other...

"Look Paddy...there's that freakin' idiot that got in the car while we were pushin' it."

     

Ireland votes Yes on European Union. Will the EU now move ahead with their plans?

Or will there be a setback, caused by the Czech President, and Britain's Elections next year?

Foes of EU treaty urge Czech PM not to sign it

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Opponents of the European Union's Lisbon reform treaty urged Czech President Vaclav Klaus on Saturday not to sign the charter and to stop it going into force, even though it has been approved by Irish voters.

Irish voters overwhelmingly backed the treaty at the second time of asking in a referendum on Friday. But it cannot be implemented until it has been ratified by all 27 member states, and the signatures of two EU leaders are still missing.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski said before the referendum he would ratify the treaty if Ireland backed it but Czech President Vaclav Klaus has given no indication that he will sign it, despite growing pressure from other EU leaders.

"I hope Vaclav Klaus can hold out as long as possible. But it will be very difficult," Nigel Farage, leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, said.

"I expect a lot of pressure to be put on him from all sides in the EU and in the Czech Republic. We will just have to wait and see what happens."

[...]

But groups that oppose the treaty in Ireland said they hoped Klaus would hold out until Britain's parliamentary election next year, which the Conservatives are widely expected to win.

Conservative leader David Cameron has promised a referendum on the charter although Britain has already ratified it.

"I would urge the Czech president not to sign the treaty into force. If he resists, then it will give the British public, who were promised a referendum, a chance to decide once and for all," said Libertas leader Declan Ganley, who led opposition to the treaty when Irish voters rejected it in June 2008.

Coir, a prominent opponent of the treaty in Ireland's second referendum campaign, said the Czech Republic was the "next port of call in the fight against Brussels." [...]

I've posted previously about the nasty attacks on the Czech President, to bully him into submission:

Check out the Czech President, Vaclav Klaus

Now the attacks on him will probably get even worse. Poor Klaus. I hope he can hold out. It will be interesting to see if Britain can re-claim it's sovereignty with a referendum. We shall see.


Related Links:

Ireland has 2nd vote on Lisbson Treaty [with update on YES vote]

Without Opposition: the European Union

European Union: becoming openly totalitarian?
     

Ireland has 2nd vote on Lisbson Treaty

I hope they vote "no" yet again [See update below, the vote is "Yes"]:

On Friday Ireland Decides Europe’s Future

This Friday, the Irish people are again being asked to sign away their sovereignty and freedom to the European Union authorities in Brussels. When the matter was put before them in a referendum in 2008, the Irish voted “No.” Now they have been told to vote again on the same matter. Ireland is the only country of the 27 EU member states where the people are allowed a direct vote about their future. In the other 26 countries which together with Ireland make up the European Union, the governments – not the people – have already decided to transfer national sovereignty to Brussels.

The EU leaders want Ireland to vote “yes.” They are intent on forcing the Irish to vote again and again until they say “yes.” In the past weeks, politicians from all over Europe, including Ireland’s own government ministers, have been threatening the Irish people that a second “No”-vote will have serious economic repercussions, although it has not been specified what these repercussions will be.

The referendum this Friday is Ireland’s second referendum in two years on the European Union’s 2007 Treaty of Lisbon. In June 2008, the Irish voted “No” and rejected the treaty. The fact that the Irish are being forced to hold a second referendum on the matter, is indicative of the nature of the EU and the way in which it “consults” its people. The EU is in the habit of giving recalcitrant populations another go if initially they fail to see that what the EU’s leaders have decided for them is best for them.

Had the Irish voted “yes” last year, they would not have been given a chance to change their minds. However, as the EU does not take “No” for an answer, the EU authorities have pressured the Irish government to make them vote again. Polls suggest that this time Ireland might vote “yes.” The Irish government and most of Ireland’s political parties are intimidating the people, warning them that if they say “no” again, Ireland will miss its date with history and isolate itself in Europe. Yet, the Irish are a proud and freedom-loving people and might live up to their ancient tradition of standing up to foreign domination. Many Europeans, including many English, are hoping that Ireland will be true to itself and defy Brussels as it once defied London. In Britain, Gordon Brown’s government had Parliament ratify the Lisbon treaty, despite the opposition of the British people.

Much is at stake in Ireland on Friday, because the Lisbon treaty is not an ordinary treaty. [...]

Read the whole thing for the details about what is at stake.


Related Links:

Will Sarkozy force Ireland to vote again?

Ireland votes "no" on EU superstate


UPDATE 10-03-09:

Ireland Votes Yes for European President

LONDON, Oct. 3 -- Henry Kissinger once famously asked, "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?" The answer, thanks to the Irish, may soon be the president of Europe.

Results from a referendum in Ireland indicate that voters there have removed the single greatest barrier to region-wide adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, which would further integrate the European Union -- the world's largest political and economic alliance encompassing almost 500 million people in 27 countries.

The treaty would also create a new full-time E.U. president and secretary of state, more closely linking the region's foreign policies and affording the alliance new clout on the world stage.

Irish voters rejected the treaty in a vote last year. But reassured that the European Union would not demand changes to their abortion laws or military neutrality, Irish switched gears in a second referendum Friday. Early returns released Saturday indicate a clear victory for the yes campaign.

"The Irish people have spoken with a clear and resounding voice," Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who lead the charge for the treaty's approval, said in a statement to reporters in Dublin. "It is a good day for Ireland, and a good day for Europe."

The results illustrate how the global financial crisis has forced hard-hit nations like Ireland to find new value in their E.U. membership, reenergizing a project in cross-border governance that some said would never work.

The about-face, analysts say, appeared to be driven at least in part by fear. [...]

Read the rest to see why.
     

Will Sarkozy force Ireland to vote again?

It seems that some in the EU want to force the Irish to vote again on the Lisbon treaty, because they didn't come up with the "correct" outcome the first time. From Michael Huntsman at the Brussels Journal:

Sarko Wants to Give Dublin the Mugabe Treatment

Would Nicholas Sarkozy be hot-footing it to Dublin in the dog days of summer if Ireland had voted 'Yes' in its Referendum on the EU Constitution? Of course he wouldn't. He is only going because even he can smell the raspberry the Irish blew at the EU last month. Having spoilt France's grandiose plans for jobs for the boys, expect a whole lot of angry finger-wagging.

As his own spokesman Axel Poniatowski has made clear on his behalf, there is no other choice for the Irish but to hold a second referendum and, regardless of EU and French protestations to the contrary and regardless of whatever emollient nonsense Sarkozy utters in public, behind the scenes Brian Cowen will indeed have to put up with some serious pressure from this angry voyou from Paris to get it right in a second vote and to hold that vote sooner rather than later. Fortunately others are doing their democratic bit. [...]

(bold emphasis mine) The president of Poland is now refusing to put his signature on the Lisbon Treaty, because the Irish voted "no" on it. Both Ireland and Poland know from experience about being dictated to and dominated by an empire, and they clearly see the danger.

The article rightly points out the irony of the EU condemning Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, while simultaneously pressuring the Irish to vote again. The only difference is Mugabe uses violence to get what he wants, whereas the EU will deploy threats via "diplomacy" to try and bully the Irish.

Disrespecting the vote of the Irish makes a sham out of European democracy; it renders the act of voting meaningless. And I expect that it is always a mistake to bully the Irish. They like to be "charmed". If you try to force them or punish them, they're likely to dig their heels in and fight.


Related Link:

Ireland votes "no" on EU superstate