McCain and Republican Party Struggles

Just some quick links here to articles I found interesting:

McCain detractors decreasing
A report on the status of McCain’s conservative buzz in Wonkosphere.

Quelling the McCain Mutiny
A call for patience to give conservatives time to warm up to McCain, and a plea to not call them stupid. Fine... but how about if they stop calling us RINOs?

McCain supporters urge Republicans to unite
In Michigan, the Republican Party tries to rally support around McCain with the help of Mitt Romney. But Huckabee's wife Janet is there to grab as many delegates from McCain as she can for her Husband.
     

John McCain and the Veep Question

I'm skeptical about polls, especially in absolute terms, although they often show which way the wind is blowing. Someone named Frank Newport at Gallup.com is claiming that Huckabee has the support of as many as 1/4 of Republicans nationally:

Gallup Daily: Tracking Election 2008
Based on daily polling conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008

[...] We will know more after the results of Tuesday's voting have filtered down to Republicans nationally, but several things are clear at this point from the Gallup Poll Daily tracking of Republicans' preferences. McCain is holding on to the support of more than half of Republicans nationally and maintains a lead of more than 30 percentage points above his nearest competitor. But, despite widespread discussion of McCain's status as the presumptive GOP nominee this year, the rise in support for him after Mitt Romney dropped out on Feb. 7 has essentially stalled -- at least for the moment. Despite Huckabee's slim mathematical chances of receiving enough delegates to win the Republican nomination, he has been able to hold on to the support of about a quarter of Republicans nationally. -- Frank Newport

I'd like to know exactly where he got that figure from, before I'd believe it. I admit I don't WANT to believe it. If Huckabee were chosen as veep, I think it would further alienate much of the conservative base who are already balking at McCain. Yet if they continue to balk, he may have to consider other options... might Huckabee be one of them? Lets hope not.

The Veep question is one that's on a lot of people's minds. Lisa Schiffren at NRO has a look at some of the possibilities available for John McCain, and weighs their strengths and weaknesses:

McCain’s Veep
The right No. 2 could help John McCain.

Because he is not the first choice of the conservative base, and enthusiasm for his candidacy is, to say the least, weak, presumptive GOP nominee John McCain should use the occasion of choosing his running mate to show us he cares. Instead of the verbal bouquets he’s begun tossing, the ideal Valentine should be something more solid — like picking a real conservative to round out his ticket. In the interests of balance, his running mate should not only be a staunch conservative: he or she should be younger; be more ideas-driven; boast an executive record; and — ideally — have the capacity to carry a major swing state or region. This year, race and gender could also be factors to consider.

What’s good for the GOP ticket today is good for America tomorrow. A running mate who performs well either becomes vice president — a job in which he or she may influence the administration considerably — or, if the ticket loses, becomes the presumptive candidate in 2012. [...]

She asked readers of NRO's The Corner to make suggestions, and it's those suggestions that she examines. There were too many interesting men and women to list them all here - I suggest following the link to have a look.
     

Will John McCain play nice with evangelicals?

I read that as many as 40% of evangelicals voted for Mike Huckabee in the primaries. I haven't been able to confirm that number, but it would seem that a significant number of evangelicals have split from what used to be called the Reagan Coalition. It seems they want something different from what past Republicans have offered them so far.

Much has been made of John McCain's uneasy relationship with religious conservatives. Some say that it makes it impossible for McCain to be a viable candidate for the Republican party. But what if McCain offers religious conservatives a New Deal?

McCain appeals to conservative critics

By LIBBY QUAID, Associated Press Writer Wed Feb 6, 5:56 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Republican John McCain, more than halfway to his party's presidential nomination, told his conservative critics Wednesday to dial back their animosity and personally reached out to a leading Christian conservative.

"I do hope that at some point we would just calm down a little bit and see if there's areas we can agree on," McCain said at a news conference in a Phoenix airport hangar before he flew here.

The Rev. Jonathan Falwell, son of the late Rev. Jerry Falwell who made the religious right a political force when he founded the Moral Majority in 1979, disclosed Wednesday that he had a telephone talk with McCain within the past 24 hours. Falwell, who succeeded his father as pastor of Thomas Road Baptist Church in Lynchville, Va., said he wasn't ready to endorse a candidate but wanted to hear more from the Arizona senator on the issues.

"I look forward to seeing what McCain's plan is to unite the party," Falwell said, "and to see what he has to say in the coming days on the social agenda." He also expressed interest in hearing more from McCain on national security, the economy, Supreme Court nominees, and "how to protect human life and traditional marriage."

Falwell said McCain's call was the culmination of a couple months of contact he has had with McCain's staff.

McCain had a falling out with Christian conservatives during his 2000 presidential campaign when he called the elder Falwell and religious broadcaster Pat Robertson "agents of intolerance." But McCain made up with the elder Falwell in 2006 and spoke to graduating seniors that year at Liberty University. The school was founded by the elder Falwell and is now run by Jerry Falwell Jr., who last November endorsed McCain's rival, Mike Huckabee, himself an ordained Baptist minister. [...]

(bold emphasis mine) So McCain kissed and made up with Jerry Falwell before he died, and now he's meeting with Falwell's son and heir, Jonathan. Jonathan's older brother, Jerry Falwell Jr., endorsed Mike Huckabee. Hmmmm...

I believe it's Jonathan on the left, and Jerry Jr. in the center.

Sounds like McCain has been planning this outreach for a while. It's interesting to note he's reaching out to the Falwells, one of whom is a Huckabee supporter. It's also interesting to note who he is NOT reaching out to:

[...] He said he has no plans to reach out personally to Limbaugh or Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, but emphasized: "Our message will be that we all share common principles, common conservative principles, and we should coalesce around those issues in which we are in agreement and I hope respectfully disagree on a few specific issues there's disagreement on."

He later told reporters aboard his campaign plane: "I'm aware there's a very fine line between inspiring in unity and pandering. You know, you've got to present it in the right way, of course."

The conservative critique of McCain escalated Tuesday when Dobson released a statement saying: "I am convinced Senator McCain is not a conservative, and in fact has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are." Conservative author and commentator Ann Coulter has said she'd vote and campaign for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton if McCain is the GOP nominee. Limbaugh has said a McCain nomination would destroy the Republican party. [...]

Destroy the Republican party? It sounds like McCain realizes the party is already split and floundering, and he's going to try to pull together a new coalition. But it will not be the Reagan Coalition. I think he recognizes the Huckabee evangelicals discontent, and their unwillingness to vote for Mitt Romney. At this point, he's not interested in reaching out to conservative critics like Limbaugh and Dobson, who were Romney supporters. Actually I don't know if Dobson supported Romney, but he sure didn't support McCain.

Interesting.

UPDATE 01-08-08
Dobson has officially endorsed Huckabee. From AP:

Christian Leader James Dobson Endorses Huckabee for GOP Nod

James Dobson, one of the nation’s most prominent evangelical Christian leaders, backed Mike Huckabee’s presidential bid Thursday night, giving the former Arkansas governor a long-sought endorsement as the Republican field narrowed to a two-man race. In a statement first obtained by The Associated Press, Dobson reiterated his declaration on Super Tuesday that he could not in good conscience vote for John McCain, the front-runner, because of concerns over the Arizona senator’s conservative credentials. [...]

Dobson is concerned about McCain's conservative credentials? But he apparently has no concerns about these credentials of Huckabee's:

Why Huckabee is NOT a good GOP candidate

Some of us can read, and we read more than just the Bible. Some of us understand what party politics is about, how it works and how and why we need to form alliances and work within the Republican party, so we can actually win elections and have a voice that matters. Smart evangelicals know and understand this.

Romney gave a very good speech at CPAC yesterday, explaining why he was stepping aside, for the good of America. Huckabee ISN'T stepping aside... for the good of himself.

John McCain is trying to form a new coalition and bring the party together. If Huckabee and his supporters like Dobson continue to divide the party, they may find they are no longer part of it. Perhaps that would not be a bad thing.
     

Back to reality... where to from here?

The Editors of National Review Online have published an editorial, I'm going to repeat the whole thing here, because it's short:

The Comeback . . . Adult

Mitt Romney is a smart and talented man who has run a vigorous campaign based mostly on conservative issues. He vows to keep fighting all the way to the convention. But he took third place in several Southern states on Super Tuesday, a dismal showing for someone attempting to rally conservatives. He has our support. But it is now up to him to identify a plausible path to the nomination.

Sen. John McCain’s amazing comeback is a testament to the power of perseverance, conviction, and luck. It has been good to see his strength on Iraq rewarded. For the Republican nomination to be worth his having, however, he needs to consolidate his support on the Right — ideally, before the fall.

Doing that will require ignoring some of the spin coming from his allies on immigration. They say that McCain’s victories prove that opposition to amnesty is a losing issue. Actually, the anti-amnesty candidates — including Mike Huckabee, who has been running as a deportationist — have gotten majorities in most states. Even in Florida, where strong Hispanic support gave McCain a decisive win, the anti-amnesty candidates got nearly half the vote. McCain’s success proves that Republican politicians can survive supporting amnesty if they have compensating strengths. It does not prove that the issue helped him. As Ramesh Ponnuru writes in the upcoming issue of National Review, conservatives cannot reasonably ask McCain to abandon his convictions on immigration. But they can ask him to say that he will defer any action on amnesty, or guest workers, until a few years after enforcement has been put into effect.

Immigration reform is the policy issue that gives conservatives the most concern about McCain. But they worry as much about his priorities as his policies, so he will not be able to win their support merely by listing all of the topics on which he agrees with them. Aside from his opposition to pork-barrel spending, there is no domestic conservative cause that McCain has taken up. We believe that a President McCain would prefer to appoint conservative judges, for example. But would he fight for them or cut a deal with Pat Leahy? That is the fear that underlies the complaints about McCain’s membership in the Gang of 14.

He has not always taken the lead even on national-security issues. Republicans in Washington want to extend and reform an intelligence-collection law, but Democrats are balking, threatening an interruption in operations. McCain’s voice would be helpful here, if he chose to use it.

McCain can win over most conservatives, but their support is not his by right. They will rally to him if he demonstrates that he believes that a broad range of conservative policies are among the things that are, to quote the title of one of his books, worth the fighting for.

The calm voice of the editors of NRO, helping us keep our eye on ball and focused on where it is in the bigger picture. Thank You NRO.


From Jim Geraghty at NRO's The Campaign Spot:
Hugh: Put Humpty Dumpty Together Before St. Paul

[...] Hugh is a party man, and a conservative, and a guy who keeps his eye on the long term. (Like him, I never buy into arguments that you win later by losing now.) [...]

Whatever our disappointments presently, let's keep our eye on the long term. That means using with whatever we have now, and making it work.


I think it's safe now to say the Reagan Coalition is dead. If you MUST have a post-mortem, try this one:
Religion and the death rattle of the GOP?

[...] So the South thinks it voted for a real conservative by voting for the Huckster? As I've said many times before, scratch a southern Republican, and you'll find a big-government Dixiecrat which is what Huckabee is. The Goldwater/Reagan conversion of Dixiecrats to Republican was skin deep.

What has amazed me is the depth of anti-Mormonism in evangelicals (not all - I know many who are practical and sensible when it comes to politics.) I find this completely illogical given that all religion is personal and subjective but then I'm not a domineering, authoritarian, dogmatic control freak as some religionists seem to be.

As for California: this is the first time that they have had a say in the primaries. In the 25 years that I lived there, it was all over by the time we voted in May and many people didn't even bother to vote. So far it looks like McCain is ahead with 44% (still not the magical 51%) but we won't know till tomorrow for sure. If I were Mitt, I'd concede now and not spend another dime of my own money on ungrateful and self-centered Republicans.

I've said before I'll settle for McCain. He could win against the Clintons but maybe not against the feel-good Obamania sweeping the country. Maybe the blundits are right and Americans are sick of Republicans and their endless pontificating and moralizing. [...]

The Reagan Coalition may have worked in it's time, but that was then, this is now. Now we have to form a new Coalition if we can. That coalition will consist of the willing. I'm willing, are you?
     

Is the Romney Surge the Last Chance for Evangelicals and the "Reagan Coalition"?

Dee at Conservatism with Heart has a good post at her blog about why she if voting for Romney today:

Why I'm Voting for Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday

[...] I will be honest and admit (as most of you are aware) that Romney was not my first choice. Yet, as I look at what is at stake in this November's election I think it is crucial that we pick the most conservative candidate for our nominee. I am a pretty loyal Republican and I like, probably 80% of our guys. Why we are somehow stuck with several candidates that are a part of the 20% is very frustrating, to say the least.

Anyone who has read my blog for any length of time knows that I have had HUGE issues with McCain for many years. The fact that he is now the possible nominee for our party is just beyond dis-heartening. It is like driving a stake through the heart of Reagan Conservatism. I cannot sit by silently while what so many of us have worked for is dismantled by someone as liberal as McCain. Therefore, it is expedient to support the one conservative left in this race, Mitt Romney. [...]

Dee is a conservative Christian, and I'm seeing more and more evangelicals rallying around Romney to oppose McCain. But will there be enough, and will it be in time? The polls keep showing McCain as far ahead. But the polls can be wrong; remember when the polls predicted that Hillery would lose New Hampshire? So I think it's more important to just vote, and see what the polls say later.

One of the links on Dee's post was about Huckabee as a spoiler. On that blog (Article VI Blog), I found an article by John Schroeder that was quite interesting, about the evangelical vote, conservatism and the Republican party, and how the evangelicals are about to lose their political voice, if they don't rally around Mitt Romney NOW. Here are some excerpts (bold emphasis mine):

What Is At Stake

[...] When I was first introduced the the idea via Hugh Hewitt and Robert Novak that Evangelicals would not vote for Romney because of his faith, one thought ran through my mind: “political suicide.” Only one thing could result from such a bias and that was the Evangelical political voice being cast to the side. I wanted to protect that voice. Thus my half of this blog was born.

As is almost always true in politics, the journey has been quite different than I expected, but I truly believe that the Evangelical political voice is now at stake. If Mitt Romney loses - far from a foregone conclusion - his religion will be but one of many factors in that event, and while important, I do not think it will have been determinative.

However, as the race has narrowed down to two and the spoiler, the conservative voice in the Republican party is at stake - everybody agrees on that, and Evangelicals are the energy, motivator, and banner carrier for that voice. Conservatives lose and Evangelicals are on the bench, if they are in the stadium at all. In other words, we stand on the precipice I feared from the beginning. The current electoral calculus is such that a vote for Mitt Romney is the only way to preserve that voice.

[...]

There is much discussion in this cycle by evangelicals of feeling like they are “taken for granted” by the Republican establishment. There is some truth to that, but there are two vitally important points I want to make.

The first point is - grow up. It is politics, not church. This is not about making friends and feeling good about yourself. It is about gathering enough support, meaning people, to your particular cause, concern, or issue. That is definitionally about “using” people. Once you have secured someone’s support, you have to move on to the next someone. Is that taking you for granted? In a way, it is, but no more so than your employer that fits you in a spot on the assembly line. And if you quit your job because you think your employer takes you for granted, all you really lose is a paycheck. Best have someplace else to go before you make that move, I don’t care how “hurt” you “feel.”

A brief personal aside on this point. Through the course of things it has been my privilege to meet Mitt Romney on multiple occasions. I have had extensive and personal conversations with some of his family. Over the years, I have met presidents of this country in intimate settings, and I have met presidents and potentates of many other nations. Almost all of these people have referred to me as their “friend.” When I was young, I thought that meant we were going to start hanging out and having beers together - yeah, right. But when Mitt Romney called me his friend, I knew that if time allowed, there might not be beer involved, but we could enjoy some conviviality. Simply put, the man is as genuine in his connection to the people he meets as the circumstances can possibly allow - more so than any individual of such position, and higher, that I have ever met. I can assure you, Evangelicals could never be “taken for granted” by Mitt Romney. They might get less attention than they think they deserve, but that is their problem, not his.

The second point is a far more important one. Party politics is how you get things done in this nation. In those rare instances where independents manage to get themselves elected, they are relegated to the role “the speech everyone sits through politely” or the “class clown” a la Jesse Ventura. Accomplishing things in government requires rounding up enough of the right people - yeah, it’s social networking. Political parties are the infrastructure necessary to build that network.

Political parties thrive on loyalty. If they cannot, at least from time-to-time, take you for granted, they have to move on to people and groups that they can depend on so that they can accomplish their goals. It is a simple exchange. You give the party your dependable loyalty and in return they give you the means necessary to make your voice heard.

[...]

As things have turned out, Evangelicals have not refused, so much, to vote for Mitt Romney because he is Mormon, they have instead chosen to vote for Mike Huckabee because he is “one of us.” How much a role suspicion and bias against Mormonism has played in that somewhat more positive-appearing choice is a determination that will ultimately be up to pollsters and psychologists in the years after the election to determine. And while it may not be “bigotry” it is identity politics, and they are as suicidal as pure bigotry.

No identity group is sufficiently large to carry a presidential election. A coalition is required. What Mike Huckabee has done is peel off one section of the traditional conservative coalition, Evangelicals, and claimed it for himself. With the coalition split, neither Evangelicals or the greater conservative coalition can win.

The presidential candidate for a party leads that party. That leader is going to pay attention to and drive the agenda of the coalition that got him there. Not only are Evangelicals not part of the coalition that has gotten John McCain this far, McCain has in the past loudly and actively found Evangelicals distasteful. [...]

He goes on to describe the consequences of evangelicals leaving the coalition, the consequences for both evangelicals and the conservative movement as a whole, and Huckabee's terrible role in bringing this about. Huck is promising evangelicals something he can't deliver, and following him will lead to political suicide.

It's a well thought out article, and worth reading the whole thing, I think there is a lot of wisdom in it.

I'm not an evangelical, nor are all their concerns my own. But I do acknowledge that they have been vital in the past for holding the "Reagan Coalition" together. If enough of them pull out of that coalition now, it will collapse, and a new coalition will form without them. John McCain's candidacy is just the first sign of things to come. If you are unhappy about it, you can thank Mike Huckabee and his followers for that. If it's going to be turned around, it needs to be done soon.
     

Vote for Mitt Romney, stop McCain/Huckabee

Romney aims for a split in California

DENVER - Republican Mitt Romney is conceding the bulk of the Northeast to rival John McCain, counting instead on his home state of Massachusetts, a split in California and wins in a series of caucus states to extend his presidential campaign beyond Super Tuesday.

[...]

If he fails to capture enough delegates to offset McCain's likely wins in other states and strong showing in California, where the Arizona senator has the backing of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Romney could end his campaign in Boston on Wednesday.

During a news conference Friday outside a Ford dealership here, he passed up three opportunities to declare he would carry on if he fails to surpass McCain in the Super Tuesday voting.

"I really thought it would all be over, you know, early in January, and now we're going to go into February, and I just can't predict what will happen in February," he said, "so we'll see what happens."

This week the multimillionaire former venture capitalist authorized only a modest $3 million advertising buy, after committing $35 million of his own money last year in an effort to lock up the nomination early with back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

While Romney won in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada, McCain beat him in major head-to-head battles in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Huckabee prevailed in the leadoff Iowa caucuses. He has vowed to remain in the race, taking critical conservative support from Romney.

Currently, Romney trails McCain in delegates to the Republican National Convention, 83-59. A total of 1,191 are needed for the nomination.

Simple mathematics highlight the challenge confronting Romney. [...]

Read the entire article for all the details. I don't like the sound of this at all. Huckabee may take just enough votes away from Mitt to sink him. Where is Huckabee getting his money to continue on? He can't win, but can only drag Romney down.

The Mack and Huck Show

[...] Where is Tonya Harding when you need her? Huckabee should have been kneecapped back before South Carolina. He has no money to run ads in the 23 Tuesday states but just having his name on the ballot is going to steal votes from Mitt. If I were a conspiracy-minded person, I would say that Mack and Huck have done a private dirty deal to take votes away from Mitt.

That leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If Mack picks Huck for VP, then it pretty much confirms my suspicions and I could not, in good conscience, bring myself to vote for them. I'd rather see them both in hell than in the White House. [...]

This is all like a nightmare to me. I won't get to vote until April, and if the MSM is right, it could all be decided on Feb. 5th. It stinks.

Tonya, where ARE you?
     

Huckabee and Clemency: The Song

I said I was going to do more posts about music this year! Check this song out:



It's ironic that while the song is funny, it so clearly points out why this man is dangerous. How somebody with such demonstrably bad judgment can even think they deserve to be president of the United States is astounding.

I admit he can be a very charismatic speaker. That's all the more reason to check the facts. About his supporters, I can only guess that they are "emotional thinkers", and aren't actually paying attention to the facts. Perhaps the Huckster thinks we're all not paying attention? Guess again, dude. Some of us can and do READ.

Here's more details on Huckabee and his Clemency decisions:

Huck not for law and order

Huckabee - not the law & Order candidate

Huckabee: "Dear Wayne. . . My desire is that you be released from prison"

It's bad enough that he let murders go free and kill again. But he doesn't even have the moral backbone to deal with crime in his own family. Look how he used his position as governor to cover-up for his son, who was being investigated for hanging a dog and disemboweling it while it was still alive:

Huckabee: Kids Who Kill

What does this tell you about his sympathy for killers? Bad judgment is an understatement. Shame on anyone who votes for this crook.

Hat tip to TammyBruce.com for the video.
     

Fred Thompson tells it like it is

It's not as if he hasn't said these kinds of things before. But I think it's the first time such comments by him have gotten major coverage on national TV. Therefore, it's the first time many people have heard it from him.

We need to hear a LOT more from Fred. Go Fred Go!


UPDATE 02:10pm

Michelle Malkin has a post about possible combinations of candidates for a GOP ticket. She offers a poll where you can vote for your favorite:

Choose or lose? A look at two possible GOP ticket pairings


In the poll four pairing combinations are offered, and a "none" option. I voted for Thompson - Romney, and so far that combination is the most popular. In fact it's far ahead of the others.


Related Links:

Fred kicks Huckabutt

The SC GOP debate: Fred was the winner
     

An American "Christian Democrat" party?

In Europe, there are a number of "conservative" parties that call themselves "Christian Democrats". They were founded by religious people wanting to offer an alternative to secular socialism: Christian Socialism.

In many ways, Mike Huckabee seems to be trying to create such a movement within the GOP:

"The GOP's Time for Choosing"

The Democrats in the USA have gone so far left, they have fallen off the table. But they have also grabbed onto the table cloth on their way down to the floor, and are dragging everyone else to the left as well, even the GOP.

When conservatives become socialists, they extinguish themselves. Look what's happened to Europe's conservatives. Read the linked article. The GOP must not go there. American conservatives must never make the same mistake. Huckabee is on the wrong side of the aisle.