Thursday, July 14, 2011

Are voters really that dumb, or is it spin?

Unbelievable:

Lawmakers snipe, Wall St. frets as deadline nears
[...] Despite McConnell's assertions that the debt problem belongs to Obama, fresh polling from Quinnipiac University suggested voters would be more apt to hold Republicans responsible than Obama, by 48 percent to 34 percent, if the debt limit is not raised. The same survey showed voters were about evenly split on whether they're more concerned about raising the limit and increasing government debt, or seeing the government go into default and damaging the economy.

"The American people aren't very happy about their leaders, but President Barack Obama is viewed as the best of the worst, especially when it comes to the economy," said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute.

That helps explain why McConnell put forward a plan that would give Obama new powers to overcome Republican opposition to raising the debt ceiling.

The proposal would place the burden on Obama to win debt ceiling increases up to three times, provided he was able to override congressional vetoes — a threshold Obama could manage to overcome even without a single Republican vote and without massive spending cuts. Conservatives promptly criticized the plan for giving up the leverage to reduce deficits. But the plan raised the prospect of combining it with some of the spending cuts already identified by the White House in order to win support from conservatives in the House.

In an interview with radio talk-show host Laura Ingraham, McConnell described his plan in stark political terms, warning fellow conservatives that failure to raise the debt limit would probably ensure Obama's re-election in 2012. He predicted that a default would allow Obama to argue that Republicans were making the economy worse.

"You know, it's an argument he has a good chance of winning, and all of a sudden we (Republicans) have co-ownership of a bad economy," McConnell said. "That's a very bad positioning going into an election." [...]

What the hell is "Quinnipiac's Polling Institute"? Never heard of them. Just some university poll being used for White House spin? Gallop polls are more widely recognized, see what they say:

U.S. Debt Ceiling Increase Remains Unpopular With Americans
More are concerned about higher level of spending than risk of economic crisis
PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite agreement among leaders of both sides of the political aisle in Washington that raising the U.S. debt ceiling is necessary, more Americans want their member of Congress to vote against such a bill than for it, 42% vs. 22%, while one-third are unsure. This 20-percentage-point edge in opposition to raising the debt ceiling in Gallup's July 7-10 poll is slightly less than the 28-point lead (47% vs. 19%) seen in May. [...]

Sounds more believable to me. But a whopping 1/3 "unsure"? That's scary.

Even with 42% of voters against raising the debt ceiling, the Republicans will still allow Obama to do it, IF he also agrees to significant spending cuts. But he just can't (or won't) do it.

The press frequently called Bush "divisive", even as he frequently gave in to Democrats. But this president gives in to nothing, demonstrates no flexibility, and somehow, he's supposed to be a "uniter"? I'm not seeing it. And that's too bad, because a uniter is what we desperately need.

Gallup also said this:

On Deficit, Americans Prefer Spending Cuts; Open to Tax Hikes
PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' preferences for deficit reduction clearly favor spending cuts to tax increases, but most Americans favor a mix of the two approaches. Twenty percent favor an approach that relies only on spending cuts and 4% favor an approach that uses tax increases alone.

[...]

Responses on both sides to a large degree reflect the arguments political leaders are making. Two of the most common, and arguably the dominant themes of the open-ended responses, are concerns about the effect that not raising the debt limit will have on the economy versus concerns that raising it will not sufficiently address government spending. In the same poll, Gallup asked Americans which of these two risks concerned them more, and the public expressed greater concern about raising the debt ceiling without a plan for major cuts in future government spending (51%) than about the potential harm to the economy if the debt ceiling is not raised (32%).

Implications

Government spending seems to be the primary worry for Americans when their opinions are probed about raising the debt limit. Government leaders appear to be listening, as party leaders are proposing major cuts in future government spending as a way to persuade members of Congress to vote for an increase in the nation's debt limit. In terms of deficit reduction, Americans seem to generally back an approach that relies more on spending cuts than tax increases. A key question to be answered in the days ahead is whether an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will include any tax increases. This is something many Republican members of Congress oppose, but most Americans do not seem to share this view. [...]

Large cuts in spending, along with some tax increases, would be a compromise that most Americans would accept. A true compromise would have to encompass both. The Republicans won't be able to budge from their position, unless Obama agrees to huge spending cuts. The President needs to take the lead in getting us there, but I doubt that he has what it takes.
     

Saturday, July 09, 2011

Greece has an 81 percent chance of defaulting?

Those don't sound like good odds:

Euro zone warns Greeks on sovereignty and privatization
BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers have approved a 12 billion euro ($17.4 billion) installment of Greece's bailout, but signaled that the nation must expect significant losses of sovereignty and jobs.

Ministers in the Eurogroup gave the go-ahead for the fifth tranche of Greece's 110-billion-euro financial rescue agreed last year, and said details of a second aid package for Athens would be finalized by mid-September.

But within hours of Saturday's decision, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks that help from the EU and International Monetary Fund would have unpleasant consequences.

"The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited," he told Germany's Focus magazine in the interview released on Sunday, adding that teams of experts from around the euro zone would be heading to Athens.

"One cannot be allowed to insult the Greeks. But one has to help them. They have said they are ready to accept expertise from the euro zone," Juncker said.

Greeks are acutely sensitive to any infringement of their sovereignty and any suggestion that foreign "commissars" might become involved in running the country is an incendiary political issue and could trigger more street protests.

[...]

Juncker also said Greece must privatize on a scale similar to the sell off of East German firms in the 1990s.

"For the forthcoming wave of privatizations they will need, for example, a solution based on a model of Germany's 'Treuhand agency'," Juncker said, referring to the privatization agency that sold off 14,000 East German firms between 1990 and 1994.

[...]

Financial markets still see an 81 percent chance that Greece will eventually default, and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Der Spiegel in an interview that Berlin was making preparations for such an event -- even though it does not expect it to happen.

Private financial institutions have held talks with finance ministry and central bank officials in euro zone countries to discuss under what conditions the private sector would be willing to help finance Greece and by how much.

Those discussions continue, with the involvement of the private sector in the next package a must for several euro zone countries as voters grow increasingly opposed to shouldering the burden of bailing out Greece on their own.

But private sector involvement must be voluntary to avoid triggering another downgrade of Greek debt to default status by ratings agencies, a development which could put the whole Greek banking sector at risk. [...]

It sounds like they (the EU) knows that what they are doing is going to fail, and they are hoping that the private sector will somehow bail them out of the mess government has made? How much sense does that make? And as for their comparison to East Germany's Treuhand selloff... well. Read the whole thing. It doesn't sound promising at all.

Meanwhile, back home:

Debt ceiling: Why Sunday could be make-or-break day for 'grand bargain'

I hope they do reach a grand bargin. I have no doubt that it won't be perfect, and that it will be criticized from both sides (as compromises usually are). But compromise IS the nature of politics in a democratic republic. An even though the "bargain" will be imperfect, I think it will be better than the continuing doubt and uncertainty being created by the ongoing lack of a budget, and lack of a plan to deal with the deficit. It's dangerous; we are teetering on the edge of an abyss. And the fact that it has been allowed to go on this long, is shocking. Tragic and shocking.

     

The Surprising Betty Ford

Former first lady Betty Ford dies at 93
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Betty Ford said things that first ladies just don't say, even today. And 1970s America loved her for it.

According to Mrs. Ford, her young adult children probably had smoked marijuana — and if she were their age, she'd try it, too. She told "60 Minutes" she wouldn't be surprised to learn that her youngest, 18-year-old Susan, was in a sexual relationship (an embarrassed Susan issued a denial).

She mused that living together before marriage might be wise, thought women should be drafted into the military if men were, and spoke up unapologetically for abortion rights, taking a position contrary to the president's. "Having babies is a blessing, not a duty," Mrs. Ford said. [...]

If you read the whole thing, you will see she had quite and interesting life. It certainly revealed some things about her that I didn't know.

Despite being controversial at times, I think she was most admired for her honesty.

     

Saturday, July 02, 2011

Ham Radio "Field Day" 2011

It's an annual event, which happened June 25th this year. PBS did a nice piece about it:

Hamming Up the Airwaves
When a giant tornado devastated Joplin, Mo., earlier this year, it destroyed more than homes, schools, and businesses. It also destroyed a large part of the city's communications infrastructure.

"Hospitals could not communicate, police could not communicate, and the only thing that was working was amateur radio," said Rick Spiegel, a "ham," or amateur radio operator.

I spoke with Spiegel and several of his colleagues on June 25 during the annual American Radio Relay League's Field Day. His group had set up five two-way radio stations in a park in Littleton, Colo., where they operated them for 24 consecutive hours over the weekend, using only battery power. That's how they stay on the air when cell phones and police and fire radio systems have been destroyed.

An estimated 30,000 hams across the country set up transmitters in public places this weekend to show off the emergency communications capabilities of their hobby, and to possibly attract new amateur radio enthusiasts. [...]

Read the whole thing if the topic interests you. But I'm going to print one more excerpt from the end:
[...] In the past, there were significant hurdles to becoming a ham. The radios themselves were expensive. In addition, a license from the Federal Communications Commission required hams to know Morse code, a telegraphic system that dates back to the 1890s. Morse code uses combinations of dots and dashes to represent individual letters of the alphabet, and is transmitted over the airwaves with a telegraph key.

Today a license is still required, but Morse code has been dropped from the exam.

[...]

Aspiring amateur radio operators today don't have to be rich, either, Brown said. He said that on eBay, entry-level, hand-held ham radios range from $100 to $300.

Actually, you can buy a NEW hand held transceiver, like the dual band Wouxun KG-UVD1P, for $99.95, plus shipping. I got one and have been using it for a while, and it's been working great. Good value for the money.

I got my technician license with a self-study book, it was fairly easy and enjoyable. There is no age limit, and I've heard of kids as young as 7, even 5, getting their licenses. There are free practice exams on-line, so it really is easier than it used to be. And IMO, it's also FUN.

H.T. to QRZ.COM where I got the link to the article.


Also see:

Radio Communications in a Changing World

Learning Ham Radio; start with a Police Scanner?

The ARRL, my missed opportunity, and my fun new hobby

Oregon Emergency Amateur Radio in Action

No more magic: "Why should I get a ham license just so that I can talk to a bunch of old geezers about their latest heart bypass operations?"

Shortwave Radio Nostalgia for a Sunday

Nostalgia for "tube" radios, a.k.a. "boat anchors"

The convergence of Ham Radio with the Internet
     



     

Friday, July 01, 2011

July's Planets, and Starry Night Software

Sky watchers may enjoy watching the show this month, starting tomorrow:


Night Sky News: Holiday Planets on Display
[...] Starting on July 2, a razor thin crescent will hang just below the innermost planet (most difficult date to find-extremely close to horizon) and by July 4 the widening crescent Moon will pair up with the 77 light year distant star Regulus. Continuing its trek up the south-western sky, the quarter Moon joins Saturn on July 7. [...]

The article says the image above was generated by Starry Night Software. I have an older version of the software that came with a telescope I bought several years ago. It can plot the constellations, stars and planets for you, and show you where they are in the sky in real time. The software is really neat; the newer version looks even more advanced. Space fans may want to check it out.
     

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

DIY home security systems. Whatzagoodone?

I've been looking at security systems on Amazon.com. Something we could install ourselves, and not have to pay monthly fees. This one looked like one of the better ones:


AAS-V700 Wireless Home Security Alarm System Kit DIY (R)
Product Features

* Comes with 3 horns which is essential for any alarm system (one outdoor for your neighbours to hear and two indoor for yourself)

* 99 Zone Display Wireless Security System (Supports an unlimited number of sensors per zone),provides the most extensive coverage.

* Two type passwords. administrative password allow to program and operate the system. user's password only allows to operating the system .

* Four types of defense zones that offers enhanced accuracy and alarm capacity: emergency, arm, home arm

* Auto-Dials up to 6 phone numbers when alarm is tripped w/redial ( plays personal recorded outgoing message). self monitoring. no monthly fees

Technical Details

* Comes with 3 horns which is essential for any alarm system (one outdoor for your neighbours to hear and two indoor for yourself)

* 99 Zone Display Wireless Security System (Supports an unlimited number of sensors per zone),provides the most extensive coverage.

* Two type passwords. administrative password allow to program and operate the system. user's password only allows to operating the system .

* Four types of defense zones that offers enhanced accuracy and alarm capacity: emergency, arm, home arm, door chime and specially engineered false-alarm preventing mechanism.

* Auto-Dials up to 6 phone numbers when alarm is tripped w/redial ( plays personal recorded outgoing message). self monitoring. no monthly fees

* Multiple sensors to meet your home and business security need. you can always add more sensors to your system.

* Phone Line Anti-Cut Monitoring (Alarm sounds if phone line is cut)

* Rechargeable Backup Battery (Built into the keypad/control panel)

* Programmable Entry Delay (0 to 30 minutes)

* Programmable Exit Delay (0 to 30 minutes)

* Programmable siren time(0 to 30 minutes)

* Audible or Silent Alarm Mode

* Power & Armed LED Light Indicators

* Zone LED Light Indicators

* Remote Access By Phone Features ( Arm, Disarm, Monitor Mode)

* Easy install, no professional required. no installation charge.

* Reset to Factory Settings

[...]

This brand has high ratings on Amazon. But then I saw this in the comments:
[...] The seller is rebating $20 to everyone who posts a 5 star rating. Not ethical. I have not considered the rebate when I posted a high rating - the product is worth the money.

I had noticed that a lot of the five star reviews did list complaints or criticisms, which made me wonder why they gave it 5 stars anyway. Now I know why.

So is it worth the money? Who knows. So far it sounds like the best thing I've looked at. But buying electronics is so tricky nowadays, you just have to wonder about the quality and if it's going to last.
     

Will we end up wanting global warming?

Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots
WASHINGTON (AFP) – For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate," said Hill. [...]

It sounds like guessing. And then it goes on to say that even if a "Little Ice Age" happens, we will still have to worry about Global Warming. Huh? Go figure.
     

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Are conditions like "Allergic Disease" and "Increased Intestinal Permeability" related?

At the very least, they may overlap:

Allergic Disease IS the Symptom
Allergic Disease, also called Atopic Disease, is a term used for any one of several allergic diseases that all share one thing in common, an inappropriate and hyperactive immune system response to common substances.

[...]

People who have atopic diseases tend to say that their disease is genetic. While this is partly true, diseases are only INFLUENCED by genetics, The environment controls the outcome of how those genetics are expressed.

You may have a PREDISPOSITION to have these allergic diseases, but that does not mean that everyone who has the genes gets the disease. In fact, much recent research has been focusing on substances called nuclear receptors. These receptors attach to specific areas on DNA strands and act as messengers that tell the genes what is going on in the body. When specific deficiencies of enzymes or nutrients are present then the genes will 'turn on' other genes in response to the 'problem'.

The genes that get turned on can cause various things to happen in the body: inflammation and increased hormonal activity are examples of what can happen depending upon the situation. If you begin to understand this way of thinking, allergic diseases become SYMPTOMS of imbalance in the body and not a disease in and of themselves. When you have flare-ups, it is the body’s way of informing you that you have imbalance from overload of Environmental Toxins or improper nutrition for your genetics.

This allows you to have control over whether you experience symptoms or not. Allergy relief drugs become a way to get temporary allergy symptom relief when you are miserable, but they are NOT a lifelong commitment. [...]

So it's suggesting that imbalance can cause the body's failure to properly deal with ordinary substances. For instance, if the cell wall of the small intestine isn't able to do it's job optimally, as this next article claims:

Is Increased Intestinal Permeability
Making You Sick?
[...] Your small intestine is literally one cell thick and is the only barrier between the food that you eat and your bloodstream!!

These cells, called intestinal villi, are packed tightly together and are designed to absorb nutrients from your food and send it directly into the neighboring bloodstream that it is only one cell away from.

But this ultra thin barrier doesn’t just protect you from pathogens in your food, but from your food itself!!

It is ESSENTIAL that food particles do not get into your bloodstream. I know that it seems silly to think that food even COULD get into your bloodstream- yet that is EXACTLY what happens with Increased Intestinal Permeability!

[...]

You see, anytime that you get severely stressed, your intestinal tract becomes inflamed- and when inflammation occurs, the intestinal cells that are usually packed tightly together- begin to swell.

Under normal conditions, the Adrenal Glands produce a stress hormone called cortisol that decreases this inflammation and all is well again.

But if you are under severe stress for months or years- you get divorced, your mother dies, you’re working 80 hour workweeks in a job that you hate- the Adrenal Glands will Begin to Get Fatigued and won't be as effective at reducing the inflammation.

This constant swelling will eventually damage the cells and small gaps will form in between their usual 'tight junctions'.

Once this happens, those tiny gaps and inflammation prevent you from absorbing nutrients AND allow pathogens from your food and tiny undigested food particles into your bloodstream!! And that becomes a HUGE PROBLEM as you will soon see.

[...]

When Increased Intestinal Permeability allows food or pathogens into your bloodstream, your immune system gets activated in order to fight off the “invader”.

In the case of a pathogen, this is GREAT- as the next infection will be fought off easier. However, in the case of food particles, this is NOT a good situation. Your body recognizes that food particle as the enemy.

And each time you eat that food, the Immune System continually mounts a stronger and stronger response to that invader.

This is What Causes Food allergies- usually to milk, wheat, corn or soy- and is often the 'trigger' for Gluten Sensitivity- which is a HUGE undiagnosed health problem!

Some people are more aware that the food that they are eating is making them ill and they avoid those foods, but these food reactions can take hours or days to really be felt.

By that time, all you know is that you don’t feel well, but you don’t associate it with the food you ate 2 days ago! And if you eat that food nearly every day, then all you know is that you are always feeling tired and unwell.

This sets up a self perpetuating cycle because these food particles and pathogens cause you MORE STRESS which makes your Leaky Gut Syndrome even worse, which allows MORE food particles to pass through, which makes you allergic to even MORE foods....

[...]

The liver, when it’s healthy, is able to use it’s own immune system to take care of any pathogens or food particles that have escaped- and dispatch them without too much trouble. But when Increased Intestinal Permeability becomes the normal situation- the liver gets bogged down processing all of the excess junk that is coming at it. Your liver can only do so much! When it gets overloaded, it begins to store Environmental Toxins from your food, water, air and home products -in your fat so that it can ‘get to it later’.

If Leaky gut is the problem, then later never comes. When the liver gets REALLY overloaded, some of these molecules begin to get into your general circulation- and this is where the problem gets REALLY messy. Your entire immune system gets involved and goes into overdrive.

[...]

When the immune system begins to be activated on such a large scale and on such a constant basis, it's almost a sure thing that you will have some sort of chronic illness.

Everyone reacts differently to this, but it’s likely that you’ll be feeling pretty bad and will have been to the doctor a few times for your ‘disease symptoms’ that are really just symptoms of Increased Intestinal Permeability and liver toxicity.


Some of the problems that different people get are:

* Neurologic conditions like: autism, depression, schizophrenia

* Pain conditions like: Symptoms of Fibromyalgia, migraines, osteoarthritis

* General problems like: Chronic fatigue, multiple chemical sensitivity

* Gastrointestinal problems like: IBS, Crohn’s Disease, Celiac Disease, Diverticulitis

* Skin problems like: Eczema and psoriasis

* Chronic infections: Urinary Tract Infections, Yeast Infections, Sinus Infections, Colds and Flu

* Autoimmune Disorders like: Diabetes, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Lupus


Sound like you or someone that you know?? [...]

Follow the links, for suggestions on how to deal with these problems.


Also see:

What Causes Food Allergies?
You Might Be Surprised...


Treating Atopic Dermatitis

     

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Windows 8 and your office furniture

You might have to upgrade your desk:

What Windows 8 Needs Is Some New Furniture
[...] One of the defining features of the Windows 8 interface is that it is uniquely suited for manipulating and interacting via touch. As natural as touch gestures might be for the Windows 8 operating system, it is not natural to reach up to tap the monitor sitting on your desk.

I should know. I already have a touchscreen monitor that I connect my laptop to when I am sitting at my desk. It is an Acer T230H 23-inch monitor. I thought that it would be really cool to be able to interact with Windows 7 via touch, but the reality is that is highly impractical. I tried it for a while, but my shoulders get tired pretty quick when holding my arm out straight in front of me for extended periods to tap and swipe the screen.

I realize that beneath the veneer of flashy tiles, and the revamped 'Zune-esque' user interface, the traditional Windows operating system I am used to exists somewhere. Yes, it is possible to navigate Windows 8 with a mouse and keyboard, and the touchscreen interface is not a requirement. But, I would rather be able to use touch gestures as well.

What Windows 8 needs is a desk where the monitor lays down instead of standing up on top of the desk. But, a completely flat monitor would also be a pain ergonomically--both in terms of the viewing angle and strain on your neck, and in terms of having to reach out across it to tap and swipe.

But, if the monitor were lying at a slight angle--with the base essentially making contact with the top of the keyboard, it would be in a good position for viewing, and in a reasonable position for working with the touchscreen interface. [...]

I would expect that there is going to be a market for new monitor stands, that position the old monitors at an angle more conducive to touch mode operation.

I've noticed that many of the newest Linux desktops have been adopting the "tile" theme for their icons, and emphasizing their compatibility with touch-screens. It's part of the general push for computer operating systems to become compatible with tablets and smart phones, which rely on touch screens.

I guess touch screens may become the next Big Thing. And a "mouse" may one day go back to being just a rodent.


Related link:

Windows 8 aims for tablets and more
     

Fossil Fuels: They've only just begun

I posted earlier about Peak Oil/increased-demand theory , causing shortages. But the following article from Salon.com changes all of that. It maintains that solar and wind power are endangered, not fossil fuels, which are in fact poised to really start to kick in:

Everything you've heard about fossil fuels may be wrong
The future of energy is not what you think it is
[...] it appears that the prophets of an age of renewable energy following Peak Oil got things backwards. We may be living in the era of Peak Renewables, which will be followed by a very long Age of Fossil Fuels that has only just begun.

Thanks to shale oil and natural gas, and new technologies that not only make them more easily available world-wide, but make them a cleaner alternative to coal. Read the whole thing, it's very thorough. It explains it's premise in detail, and presents a very compelling case. Gosh and Golly. Whodathunkit?
     

Preparing for the Rapture in the I.T. world

This was written in anticipation of Harold Camping's May 21st prediction, but could easily be recycled for the next prediction by anyone. Hilarious advice:



10 Things IT Groups Need to Know About The End of the World
[...]

7. Avoid disruption.

At 5:45 p.m. Saturday, invite all the Christians on staff to pray in a conference room or auditorium. That way you minimize the network and systems disruption, not to mention the drama, when they all vanish.

6. Review all software licenses.

Make sure they don't expire immediately before or after The Rapture.

Despite being employees of West Coast companies, your Cisco or Microsoft reps might be among the missing (possibly less likely with Apple). Afterward, you might be able to push for a Rapture Discount on new software and hardware.

5. Install mobile device management software.

With an application like MobileIron, you can shut down and lock, and later locate, any cellphones left behind by Raptured staff. Otherwise you could be hit with huge data charges if the phones were on and online when their users were taken. And make sure they're all equipped with bumpers so when they hit the desk or the pavement they won't break.

4. Postpone the upgrade to Windows 7.

You could save money (fewer users) and avoid disruptions (missing tech support staff) by waiting until after The Rapture to move to Microsoft's Windows 7 operating system.

3. Block all internal video transmissions and external streaming for 48 hours.

Let's face it, if you're in a telepresence conference and people start blinking out, it's bound to be disconcerting. Plus, you just know YouTube is going to be flooded with video clips of people's family, friends, acquaintances, or worse, themselves, poofing into thin air. The UnRaptured won't be able to stop themselves from clicking on the links, and the video traffic will bring your network to its knees. [...]

Isn't it nice to know someone's thought about all the practical follow-up details? Read the whole thing for more advice. The author knows his topic rather well.


Related Link:

Finding God Through Open Source
     

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Born Yesterday...

Actually, it was the day before yesterday. And "hatched" might be a more accurate description.


There were four chicks in this batch. In the next photo, you can see #4 peaking out from under mama's wing:


I put the eggs under the hen on Mother's Day. They hatched on Memorial Day. So I guess you could say they are Holiday Chicks.


Here they are basking in the setting sun. In a day or two, I will let them outside so mom can teach them to forage.


The hen is not their biological mother. She is a Bantam-Cochen mix. The chicks are hybrids of two larger breeds: Leghorn mother, Americana father. Leghorns make lousy mothers though, so I put the eggs under the best broody hen I had at the time.

They are going to grow much larger than this hen. She has quite a task ahead of her. Fortunately, she's quite tough. ;-)
     

NASA's Space Shuttle Program Winds Down; What is likely to replace our space fleet?

Next-to-last space shuttle flight lands on Earth
[...] Launch managers marveled Wednesday over how good Endeavour still looks.

"It looks like it's ready to go do another mission," Kelly noted. He said he'd fly the space shuttle every couple months if he could — heck, every week if possible. "But it's 30 years old ... and we've got to grow and adapt and build new things."

Atlantis will remain at Kennedy Space Center as a tourist stop, following one last supply run to the space station. Liftoff is set for July 8.

Discovery, the fleet leader, returned from its final voyage in March. Its next stop is a Smithsonian Institution hangar outside Washington.

Moving Atlantis to the launch pad as Endeavour landed helped temper the sadness so many are feeling with one mission remaining, officials said. Thousands of more layoffs loom once the shuttle program ends.

"It's been a heck of a month in the last four hours," observed launch manager Mike Moses, "and I think we've used up our overtime budget for the entire month."

NASA is leaving the Earth-to-orbit business behind to focus on expeditions to asteroids and Mars. Private companies hope to pick up the slack for cargo and crew hauls to the space station. But it will be a while following Atlantis' upcoming flight — at least three years by one business' estimate, five to seven years by Kelly's — before astronauts ride on American rockets again.

Until then, Americans will continue hitching rides aboard Russian Soyuz capsules at the cost of tens of millions of dollars a seat.

"We're in the process of transition now, and it's going to be awkward," Atlantis astronaut Rex Walheim said. "But we'll get to the other side and we'll have new vehicles.

"I really do have to say, though, it's going to be really hard to beat a vehicle that is so beautiful and majestic as that one is," he said as Atlantis rolled to the pad behind him. "I mean, how can you beat that? An airplane sitting on the side of a rocket. It's absolutely stunning."

I read elsewhere, that Endeavor was designed to fly a total of 100 missions. Retiring it at 25 seems premature, and in many ways, a waste of money. So why are they retiring it?

1. Safety issues. Since the Challenger and Columbia deaths, there have been a lot of safety concerns about continuing to use the shuttles. Dangers inherent in the design, that are not easily managed.

2. The cost of launching, and maintenance. The vehicle's themselves may be paid for, but their continued maintenance, and the cost of launching them safely, is quite expensive.

NASA was working on a new transport vehicle, the Orion Spacecraft, but that got scrapped by Obama when he scrubbed the Constellation Program.

Recently there has been talk of restoring the part of the Constellation Program that would finish building the Orion, so the US would at least have a spacecraft. There is some sense in that, since billions have already been spent on it. But it will be years before it's ready.

Obama has suggested that the private sector should step in to fill the transport gap. I suspect he says that because he's not that interested in the space program, and wants their budget money for entitlement spending.

Money spend on NASA's budget was only a fraction of what's spent on entitlements; see this graph. Entitlement spending, and even the interest on our debt, is way, WAY more than NASA's budget. And at least the NASA spending created jobs, and spin-off technologies that could be used in the private sector. We at least got something back for our money.

Still, I agree with the President that the private sector should be more involved in space transportation, and some good may come out of Obama's decision. Some private companies are already striving to fill the gap, and my favorite, Spacex, has already come quite far in doing so. Competition in the free market often creates better, and more cost-effective, alternatives. So perhaps it will ultimately benefit The Future of American Manned Space Flight.

We shall see.


The "Dragon" spacecraft, by Spacex

     

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Wind Power from... the Jet Stream?


Many believe it's possible, and even more viable than land based turbines:

Companies look for power way, way up in the sky
BOSTON – The world's strongest winds race high in the sky, but that doesn't mean they're out of reach as a potentially potent energy source.

Flying, swooping and floating turbines are being developed to turn high-altitude winds into electricity.

The challenges are huge, but the potential is immense. Scientists estimate the energy in the jet streams is 100 times the amount of power used worldwide annually.

Cristina Archer, an atmospheric scientist at the California State University in Chico, said there's "not a doubt anymore" that high-altitude winds will be tapped for power.

"This can be done, it can work," she said.

The question is, when? Some companies project their technology will hit the market by the middle of the decade, but Fort Felker at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory says the industry is 10 years away from making a meaningful contribution to the nation's electricity demands.

[...]

The lure of high-altitude wind is simple: Wind speed generally increases with its height above the ground as surface friction diminishes. Each time wind speed doubles, the amount of energy it theoretically holds multiplies by eight times.

The world's most powerful winds circulate in the jet streams, which are found four to 10 miles off the ground and carry winds that regularly break 100 miles per hour.

The dream is to eventually tap the jet streams, but high-altitude wind companies are focusing for now below a 2,000-foot ceiling, above which complex federal air-space restrictions kick in. Adam Rein, co-founder of the Boston company Altaeros Energies, said his company calculates winds at the 2,000 foot level are up to 2 1/2 times stronger than winds that can be reached by a typical 350-foot land turbine.

High-altitude wind advocates say their smaller, lightweight turbines will be far cheaper to build and deploy than windmills with huge blades and towers that must be drilled into land or the sea floor.

Those savings would mean inexpensive energy. With wide-scale use, advocates see a range of prices, from something comparable to land wind's current 9 or 10 cents per kilowatt hour down to an astonishingly low 2 cents per kilowatt hour.

"They are projecting crazy numbers," Archer said. "I'm not saying that it's true. ... But it's really the lowest, the cheapest energy source, possibly." [...]

It goes on to point out some of the obstacles that need to be overcome, but many believe it's doable and practical. Clean and cheap energy for our Brave New World.

     

The Many Functions and Benefits of Lecithin

We were discussing at dinner, trying more recipes with eggs. Eggs are a good source of Lecithin, so it would be more of a good thing:

Facts About Lecithin and Function of Lecithin

     

Oregon's State Budget, and Facing Reality

Here is an interesting read. It claims our state deficit needn't exist:

The Fallacy of a $3.5 Billion State Budget Deficit
[...] The official assumptions assume we will continue to do almost everything the state is doing now, in the same manner it is doing them now. This is not only a recipe for a huge deficit, but it is also a recipe for shortchanging everyone who has a right to expect that their state government will focus on its core responsibilities and do so in a fiscally responsible manner.

As set forth in Facing Reality, we identify a number of ways the state can reform how it performs certain services, how it pays for them, and how it can spin off or end other services to reduce costs and/or improve service. Included are items such as privatizing liquor distribution and sales and the DMV, reducing corrections costs, eliminating a number of costly tax credits and new programs, and targeted reductions in public employee compensation. All together these reforms could save some $2 billion in the upcoming biennium.

In Facing Reality we also propose a reasonable limit on the future growth of state expenditures, and the reduction or elimination of perhaps the most damaging symbol of Oregon’s perceived unfriendliness to business and entrepreneurship: the highest-in-the-nation 11 percent capital gains tax. [...]

Read the whole thing for the details; it's excellent. Now we just have to find a way to force our politicians to face reality.


Also see:

Oregon tax hikes lead to cut jobs, higher prices

Oregon nears highest income tax in the nation

Oregon; following California's example?
     

Is it worth saving money anymore?

I still believe in keeping some savings, but what about long term financial planning?



I'm 31. Where should I be financially?
[...] Once you have a retirement goal in mind, you want to be able to refer to benchmarks along the way to see how you're doing. Otherwise, you could find yourself at the end of your career well short of the savings you'll need.

The best yardstick is the size of your nest egg relative to your income. To quit working at 65 with a decent shot at replacing 80% of your pre-retirement earnings, you'll need savings equal to roughly 12 times your income (that assumes you'll collect Social Security but no pension). [...]

I used to believe in this kind of advice. I still do, in theory. But is it worth doing NOW, when our money is being devaluated?

In my youth, till I learned to manage my money properly, I went hungry a few times between paychecks. Then, after going into debt with credit cards, I learned to save money to pay off the debt. After that, I was good at saving money so I kept doing it, enabling me to buy property. Since then, I've always had savings. But nowadays, I keep thinking I need to spend it, before it becomes worthless. Like it happened in Germany in the 1920's, where people's entire life savings were wiped out overnight.

James Turk did the following interview with Moneychanger.com. Turk maintains that our currency has already collapsed, that we are already in the "process", and it just hasn't reached critical mass yet. The interviewer argues forcefully against Turks assessments, but Turk holds his ground, answering a lot of good questions by the interviewer. Here's a sample:

JAMES TURK ON THE DOLLAR’S COMING COLLAPSE
[...]
Moneychanger Since, at least the New Deal and the succession of Roosevelt and all his monetary/inflationary tricks, people have been predicting that the dollar would collapse. Aren’t you ashamed to come along 70 years later and predict again that the dollar is going to collapse?

Turk By any logical interpretation the dollar has already collapsed. Today’s dollar only purchases five cents of what it purchased in the 1930s, ten cents of what it purchased in the 1960-70s, and maybe 50 cents of what it purchased in the 1980s. So inflation has already brought the dollar to an ongoing collapse. The sound money people have been warning about this through the decades: the dollar is no longer an effective form of currency.

That raises another question: will the dollar’s problems become more severe? That’s where it becomes a bit more troublesome in terms of projecting and looking at the future. Can this decades-long situation continue, or must it end in some cataclysm? In our view it must come to end in a cataclysm, and that’s what we lay out in the book.

Moneychanger But isn’t the word “collapse” misleading? The people who mange the dollar, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, have managed the collapse from 1934 until 2004, 70 years, so that the economy did not collapse along with the dollar. Can you really call that a collapse? Also, what’s to prevent their managing it a bit longer, through this decade? Even if it loses (as I expect) at least 75% of its value in this decade -- and it’s already lost nearly 30% from February 2002 to March 2004 -- it still won’t disrupt the economy too terribly.

Turk Let’s look at the first part of that question, the claim that the economy hasn’t collapsed. You’re widening the point that I was making earlier about the dollar collapsing in terms of purchasing power. When you bring the economy into the discussion you have to ask yourself another question. Are people better off now than they were 20-30 years ago? Looking at real wealth and adjusting for the dollar’s debasement, people are less wealthy today than they were 20-30 years ago. Incomes are lower today than they were 20-30 years ago, partly because the dollar’s been debased, partly because people take home less money after taxes. By any logical measure, I don’t think people are as well off as they were in the 1960s or 1950s when the dollar problems weren’t as severe as they’ve become in recent decades.

But there’s more to that question: we’ve created a debt mountain, a debt bubble. Bubbles always pop. We mortgaged our future trying to maintain standards of living by debasing the currency and borrowing. This is unsustainable and will ultimately bring about the dollar’s collapse.

Moneychanger But the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have managed the collapse. That’s what they do. They are crisis managers. They exist to manage the debasement of the dollar so that this infection does not give the whole economy a fever resulting in death. Would you agree?

Turk Yes, and as a clear result of their managing an unsustainable situation, we have less and less freedom. The Patriot Act just presents the latest example. Look at US financial history. They continue to erode and encumber our freedom. Why? Because they recognise that the present system is not sustainable and they are trying to keep the bubble in the air.

Moneychanger You claim the present system is not sustainable. Allan Greenspan says it is. George Bush says it is.

Turk Well, are they going to tell you that it’s not sustainable?

Moneychanger No, but they have 70 years of success to argue on their side. What makes it different this time? In the dollar’s darkest hours of 1980, when gold hit $850 and silver $50 and they pushed interest rates over 20%, well, yes, it’s a crisis, but we’ll muddle through this one, too. They’ve been muddling through since 1934. What is to prevent their muddling through this time? What specific things will make the dollar collapse this time? By “collapse” I don’t mean “erode” or even “erode quickly”, but I mean collapse in the sense that currency collapsed in Germany in 1923 or Argentina in 2002.

Turk That is exactly what I envision for the dollar. To answer your question we have to consider both supply and demand. In recent decades demand for the dollar has been, more or less, fairly consistent. As the financial bubble has been inflated and the Debt Mountain was built, people have continued to demand the dollar. They still use it for their day to day transactions. But what happened in Argentina and in Germany in the 1920s? Eventually, in a very short period of time, people realised that the hollow promises they were using for currency weren't worth what they had previously valued them to be. Then began the flight from the currency. The demand for those currencies dropped dramatically. In a long-term time frame, you could say almost overnight, but it was really over a period of weeks and months. People moved out of that currency as quickly as they could into other alternatives.

Demand for the dollar will ultimately drop for essentially the same reasons that demand for the Argentine peso and the Reichsmark dropped: they were fiat currencies oversupplied to the market.

Today far too many dollars are sloshing around the global economy. All it takes is a little break in confidence, then people quickly understand that the dollar is not worth the paper it’s printed on. There are a lot of hollow promises backing your dollar. That will lead to the flight from the currency that will ultimately bring the dollar down. But it’s the same outcome for every fiat currency. That’s the point that Americans don’t yet get. There is no logical reason why the dollar should end any differently than any other fiat currency.

Moneychanger But help me see the unseen. In 1923 Germany the people had already suffered through the inflation of World War I. They had seen their currency lose value as prices rose 800%, they had caught on. That “catching on” was necessary to precipitate the flight from the currency.

In Argentina in the decades of the 1980s and 90s, they had three different currencies, if I’m not mistaken. It may have been four, I can’t keep up with it. All Latin America has a century-long tradition of monetary instability. In the U.S. the last two generations have grown up without seeing gold in circulation, the last generation has grown up without seeing silver in circulation. Since 1971, the whole world has been on a fiat standard. Every currency has been inconvertible, backed by nothing. So why would American confidence break now? They don’t know anything else. They have only known a regime of inflation and ever-depreciating dollars. What will put the idea in their mind now that they have to flee out of dollars?

Turk What will trigger the flight from the dollar? We can’t really predict that. It could be some geopolitical event, some domestic financial event, a bankruptcy of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. We just don’t know what the specific trigger will be.

Look at the overall picture of what the dollar is today, and ask yourself a question. Do I want to prepare for this coming event by moving assets out of dollars into other alternatives – other currencies, precious metals, tangible assets. Never mind asking what specific event will starts the flight.

Where we stand today in this country is not unlike where Russians stood in the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. If you had possessed the terrific foresight to say that in two years the Russian Rouble will collapse and the Soviet Union will be history, the average Russian would have just laughed at you. And you know what he would have said? “The government will never let that happen.” Exactly what Americans say today.

“The government will never let that happen.”

But the reality is that the market is bigger than the government. Truth can be hid for only so long, and we have been hiding the truth. We’ve been creating illusions of prosperity, while in reality we’ve been consuming infrastructure and building a debt mountain. The Debt Mountain is ultimately going to be the problem that causes the dollar to collapse. [...]

Turk claims that we have not had a sound currency since 1934, even though a sound currency was written into our constitution. He also predicts the American people will demand that we go back to it.

This interview was made in 2004. Yet he predicts some things that have since happened, or are happening now. Read the whole thing, it's a real eye-opener.

What can we DO about any of it? Idaknow. Do what we can, I suppose, to get ready for the Brave New World of Finance that seems to be inexorably coming our way?


Related Links:

Commentary: Stimulate the economy, not government

What would a U.S. currency collapse look like?

Argentina's Example: Are we heading there?

Our true national debt: $130,000,000,000,000.
     

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Windows 8 aims for tablets and more

The next version of Windows is preparing to make the leap from being an operating system for PCs only:

Microsoft aims for post-PC ubiquity with Windows 8
[...] Whether called "Windows 8" or "Windows Next", analysts this week said they believe a beta version would be available as early as September 15.

It will also feature some changes allowing it to go beyond just personal computers but into the world of Tablets -- currently dominated by Apple's iOS and the iPad.

"As we look forward to the next generation of Windows systems, which will come out next year, there's a whole lot more coming," Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told developers in Tokyo recently. "As we progress through the year, you ought to expect to hear a lot about Windows 8. Windows 8 slates, tablets, PCs, a variety of different form factors."

Indeed, Microsoft also gave clues through out the year of its intentions to target tablets, nothing that the new software "will support a new kind of hardware, system-on-a-Chip (SoC) architectures, that will power the next generation of devices."

The notable SoC leaders now are UK based ARM holdings which provide the blue-prints for processors used in most cell phones, tablets, and other low-powered devices. [...]

I've even noticed that various Linux OS desktops seem to be redesigning their graphical interfaces to be more tablet-friendly. I don't think PCs will disappear overnight, but it looks like various hand-held devices will displace many of the functions that PC laptops and desktops used to fill. Tablets and Smartphones is where much of the future of personal computing will be.

Here is a glimpse of what you might expect:

Windows 8 screenshots

Log into your PC with your face

     

Health tips, and drugs VS herbs

Gee, just when you thought you had it all figured out:

Seven daily sins: Shower every day? Rinse after brushing teeth? These 'healthy' habits could be devilishly bad for you

Heart Trouble? 18 Herbal Remedies to Avoid
Herbal remedies and heart drugs can be a dangerous mix.
     

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Vitamin B12, and Alzheimers Disease

Apparently, a deficiency of the former is often mistaken for the later:

When Is Alzheimer's Disease Not Alzheimer's? When It's Vitamin B12 Deficiency!
[...] Vitamin B12 deficiency becomes more and more common as people get older. With some researchers estimating that over 800,000 elderly in the US have undiagnosed deficiency, this is NOT a small problem. Even worse is that few clinicians know about vitamin B12 deficiency or are trained to look for its symptoms. Many elderly who should be screened for this simple vitamin deficiency are, instead, diagnosed with ‘incurable’ diseases that rob them of any possible quality of life. That Mental Changes from B12 Deficiency can look EXACTLY like dementia was noted in 1902! Since then, this topic has been studied many times, and it has even been shown that CAT Scans and MRI’s that show lesions and degeneration of the brain and spinal cord are often REVERSIBLE when these lesions are caused by vitamin B12 deficiency! Yet, using these modern techniques, the presence of brain and spinal cord abnormalities is almost always used as evidence for patients and families of the Irreversible nature of their disease- when that is not necessarily the truth at all! [...]

Read the whole thing. Makes you wonder how many times Alzheimer's is a misdiagnosis.